January 05, 2008
Goldilocks Needs Tax-Reform, Not Populism
By Lawrence Kudlow
Yes, corporate profits are slowing and jobs are softening. Despite 52 months of ongoing jobs gains and 1.3 million new payrolls in the past year, December jobs registered only 18,000 and the unemployment rate ticked back up to (a still historically low) 5 percent. Despite years of gains from a booming business sector, corporate profits are in fact falling at about a 6 percent clip.
But the last thing we need now is root-canal economic populism from the campaign trail and the mainstream media telling us that Americans are unhappy. Unhappy? According to a Gallup Poll released last week, "Most Americans say they are generally happy, with a slim majority saying they are 'very happy.'" They're also prosperous. According to Investor's Business Daily, household wealth in the U.S. soared 51 percent to $58.6 trillion in last year's third quarter from $38.8 trillion in 2002.
Meanwhile, the Goldilocks economy remains alive and well. It's still the greatest story never told. And while Goldilocks may have softened somewhat, getting her back on track is not rocket science.
The key thing to remember is that businesses drive the economy. Businesses create jobs and incomes for consumers to spend. Today's John Edwards/Mike Huckabee anti-business populism sounds more like William Jennings Bryan than Adam Smith.
It's absolutely crazy. They attack Wall Street and investors, which is another way of attacking capital. Without capital investment, there will be no new business, no new jobs, and no middle class.
And the reality is that today's economic weakness is coming from the business side, not the sub-prime/housing/consumer side. We're witnessing high energy and raw-material prices cause unit costs for businesses to rise faster than prices. That spells weakening profits.
As for this notion that consumers are tapped out, take a look at disposable income. After inflation, it's rising better than 2 percent. Strong income gains of 3.7 percent for hourly earnings are running 1 percentage point ahead of inflation measures based on personal consumption. As it happens, car sales were strong this week. They're running 3.6 percent at an annual rate, ahead of the third quarter. Even holiday sales have surprised on the upside.
All of this is why the Fed needs to deliver a 50 basis point rate cut at its January 30 meeting. A big-bang rate cut would help businesses, consumers, and mortgage owners. It would make the cost of money cheaper and expand the overall liquidity base of the economy.
Some folks argue that rising inflationary pressures would offset these benefits. But that's nonsense. Inflation is the most overrated issue out there. Even when you factor in energy, headline inflation for 2007 is going to come in below the prior year while inflation for 2008 should be even lower than that.
Back in 2000-01, when the economy was slowing markedly, the Fed obsessed about inflation. They were wrong, and then took a radical u-turn. It can't be the same story again. The money supply hasn't grown in a few years while inflation is poised to go way down. The Fed must act, and act big. After that, elected Washington can do the rest.
Right now the single best thing President Bush and Congress can do is slash the corporate tax rate for large and small businesses. Bush must reach out to Charlie Rangel and move the corporate tax to 25 percent from 35 percent. Then, instead of taxing successful capitalists as an offset, Congress can entirely abolish corporate-tax subsidy loopholes, special provisions, and other corruption-inducing K-Street earmarks.
A middle-class tax cut to help families and small businesses would also work wonders. This can be done by collapsing the three middle-income tax brackets of 15 percent ($15,650), 25 percent ($63,700), and 28 percent ($128,500) into one 15 percent bracket. These brackets apply to small-business owners who may be suffering the high costs of energy and raw materials. The biggest weakness in the jobs report is the household survey which is comprised of these owner-operated small businesses. Household job increases have slumped to only 262,000 over the last year.
A major cut in the corporate tax and a simplification of the middle-income tax brackets makes good economic sense. It would help the current softening of the economy and increase America's long-run potential to grow. This is a good plan for President Bush as well as the GOP candidates on the campaign trail. It sure as hell beats talking the economy down.
America is an optimistic country, and for the life of me I don't know why the Republican presidential candidates can't understand this. If a few things go wrong we can fix them. That's what the Fed is there for and that's what tax policy is there for.
Just because Goldilocks is alive and well, it doesn't mean she can't use a bit of help.
Lawrence Kudlow is a former Reagan economic advisor, a syndicated columnist, and the host of CNBC's Kudlow & Company. Visit his blog, Kudlow's Money Politics.
www.ruffcommunications.com
Showing posts with label Edwards. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Edwards. Show all posts
Saturday, January 5, 2008
Thursday, December 6, 2007
Mortgage rate freeze reached
Mortgage rate freeze reached
By MARTIN CRUTSINGER
AP Economics Writer
Thu Dec 6, 6:42 PM ET
WASHINGTON - Distraught homeowners facing the grim prospect their monthly mortgage payments soon will surge found hope Thursday they can hold onto their houses by qualifying for a five-year freeze in loan rates.
The plan is the Bush administration's biggest move yet to show it is dealing aggressively with the mortgage crisis. The escalating problem is becoming a political issue and threatening to push the country into a recession.
"The holidays are fast approaching and this will be a time of anxiety for Americans worried about their mortgages and their homes," Bush said. The administration's efforts, he said, are "a sensible response to a serious challenge."
The initiative would hold down rates for certain subprime mortgages, which are loans offered to borrowers with spotty credit histories. These loans offer initial "teaser" rates for the first two to three years before rates climb sharply, potentially increasing monthly payments by as much as 30 percent.
Bush released his plan on a day the Mortgage Bankers Association reported that the number of mortgages entering the foreclosure process in the July-September period set a record. Behind those foreclosures is a steep slump in the housing market. After a five-year boom, home sales are plunging and prices declining in many parts of the country. More foreclosures mean more homes dumped on a glutted market.
The housing slump has caused multibillion-dollar losses at some of the largest banks and investment firms and roiled financial markets. All these problems are expected to drag down economic growth to near recession levels over the final three months of this year and into early 2008.
The administration hopes the rate freeze will slow the pace of foreclosures, buying time for the housing market to stabilize and begin to recover. A rebound in sales and home prices will allow struggling homeowners to switch their current adjustable-rate mortgages to more affordable fixed-rate loans.
Disabled veteran Jerry Alberson, 48, said he hopes he will qualify. He has a $180,000 mortgage on a two-story lakefront house in northern Mississippi that he has spent years gutting and remodeling.
"That freeze will definitely help," he said. "I'm not asking them to give me anything, just some time out."
At his White House announcement, Bush insisted the country's underlying economic fundamentals were sound. But critics said his administration was slow in reacting to the housing crisis and the delay had worsened the slump. Some contended Bush's plan was too narrowly focused.
Democratic presidential candidate John Edwards cited his proposal for a freeze on any more foreclosures. That is intended to pressure lenders to renegotiate.
"Our nation is facing a housing crisis that could cost millions of families their homes, devastate neighborhoods and seriously damage our economy," Edwards said in a statement. "The Bush plan is months late and more than a million families short."
Bush pointed blame at the Democratic-controlled Congress. Lawmakers, he said, have failed to act on various housing proposals from the administration. One would expand the ability of the Federal Housing Administration to help low and moderate-income borrowers.
But Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., said Republicans have blocked efforts to get House-passed bills through the Senate in recent weeks.
Sen. Charles Schumer, who has sought a bolder government response, said Bush's mortgage freeze may help but is not a panacea. "There are too many families who have been left out, too much left up to the voluntary willingness of the private sector and too little disclosure and transparency to ensure that families who do qualify are being helped," said Schumer, D-N.Y.
The administration said its plan could help 1.2 million homeowners — either through a freeze or quicker ways to assist homeowners refinance. The Center for Responsible Lending, which battles predatory lending, estimated that only 145,000 homeowners would qualify for the freeze because the criteria are too narrow.
Bush said homeowners concerned about mortgages that are about to jump up should seek help before they fall behind in their payments. For starters, they can call a new hot line operated by an industry alliance known as HOPE NOW: 1-888-995-HOPE.
An estimated 1.8 million homes have subprime mortgages that are scheduled to reset in the next two years. Those mortgages were initially taken out with rates of around 7 percent to 8 percent. Under the scheduled increases, the rates will climb as high as 11 percent in the months ahead without the freeze. That increase could add an additional $350 to a typical monthly mortgage payment of $1,200.
The freeze will be available only to homeowners who have not fallen behind on their payments at the lower introductory rates and who are living in the homes. This requirement would exclude people who bought investment properties hoping to profit from the housing boom.
Also excluded are people who can afford the higher payments. The administration expects these people will move as soon as they can to refinance to more affordable fixed-rate loans.
The administration also highlighted other efforts aimed at dealing with the mortgage crisis and strengthening efforts to attack predatory lending, which critics say was a primary culprit in luring people into mortgages they could not afford.
The Federal Reserve will announce stronger lending standards this month, while the Housing and Urban Development Department and federal banking regulators are acting to improve disclosure requirements, Bush said.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said the proposals were a "welcome step in helping Americans protect their homes and communities from the consequences of unnecessary foreclosures." Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, who led the weeks of negotiations with the mortgage industry, said the new approach is "not a silver bullet" but should provide significant relief.
The big sticking point in the negotiations was getting investors who had purchased the mortgages after they were bundled into securities to agree to lower interest payments. Critics have said even with a deal, there are likely to be lawsuits although the plan's supporters said they believed it will withstand legal challenges.
George Miller, executive director of the American Securitization Forum, which represents companies that package mortgages into mortgage-backed securities, told reporters he expected the industry would face suits from investors unhappy that the original terms of the mortgages have been modified.
www.ruffcommunications.com
By MARTIN CRUTSINGER
AP Economics Writer
Thu Dec 6, 6:42 PM ET
WASHINGTON - Distraught homeowners facing the grim prospect their monthly mortgage payments soon will surge found hope Thursday they can hold onto their houses by qualifying for a five-year freeze in loan rates.
The plan is the Bush administration's biggest move yet to show it is dealing aggressively with the mortgage crisis. The escalating problem is becoming a political issue and threatening to push the country into a recession.
"The holidays are fast approaching and this will be a time of anxiety for Americans worried about their mortgages and their homes," Bush said. The administration's efforts, he said, are "a sensible response to a serious challenge."
The initiative would hold down rates for certain subprime mortgages, which are loans offered to borrowers with spotty credit histories. These loans offer initial "teaser" rates for the first two to three years before rates climb sharply, potentially increasing monthly payments by as much as 30 percent.
Bush released his plan on a day the Mortgage Bankers Association reported that the number of mortgages entering the foreclosure process in the July-September period set a record. Behind those foreclosures is a steep slump in the housing market. After a five-year boom, home sales are plunging and prices declining in many parts of the country. More foreclosures mean more homes dumped on a glutted market.
The housing slump has caused multibillion-dollar losses at some of the largest banks and investment firms and roiled financial markets. All these problems are expected to drag down economic growth to near recession levels over the final three months of this year and into early 2008.
The administration hopes the rate freeze will slow the pace of foreclosures, buying time for the housing market to stabilize and begin to recover. A rebound in sales and home prices will allow struggling homeowners to switch their current adjustable-rate mortgages to more affordable fixed-rate loans.
Disabled veteran Jerry Alberson, 48, said he hopes he will qualify. He has a $180,000 mortgage on a two-story lakefront house in northern Mississippi that he has spent years gutting and remodeling.
"That freeze will definitely help," he said. "I'm not asking them to give me anything, just some time out."
At his White House announcement, Bush insisted the country's underlying economic fundamentals were sound. But critics said his administration was slow in reacting to the housing crisis and the delay had worsened the slump. Some contended Bush's plan was too narrowly focused.
Democratic presidential candidate John Edwards cited his proposal for a freeze on any more foreclosures. That is intended to pressure lenders to renegotiate.
"Our nation is facing a housing crisis that could cost millions of families their homes, devastate neighborhoods and seriously damage our economy," Edwards said in a statement. "The Bush plan is months late and more than a million families short."
Bush pointed blame at the Democratic-controlled Congress. Lawmakers, he said, have failed to act on various housing proposals from the administration. One would expand the ability of the Federal Housing Administration to help low and moderate-income borrowers.
But Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., said Republicans have blocked efforts to get House-passed bills through the Senate in recent weeks.
Sen. Charles Schumer, who has sought a bolder government response, said Bush's mortgage freeze may help but is not a panacea. "There are too many families who have been left out, too much left up to the voluntary willingness of the private sector and too little disclosure and transparency to ensure that families who do qualify are being helped," said Schumer, D-N.Y.
The administration said its plan could help 1.2 million homeowners — either through a freeze or quicker ways to assist homeowners refinance. The Center for Responsible Lending, which battles predatory lending, estimated that only 145,000 homeowners would qualify for the freeze because the criteria are too narrow.
Bush said homeowners concerned about mortgages that are about to jump up should seek help before they fall behind in their payments. For starters, they can call a new hot line operated by an industry alliance known as HOPE NOW: 1-888-995-HOPE.
An estimated 1.8 million homes have subprime mortgages that are scheduled to reset in the next two years. Those mortgages were initially taken out with rates of around 7 percent to 8 percent. Under the scheduled increases, the rates will climb as high as 11 percent in the months ahead without the freeze. That increase could add an additional $350 to a typical monthly mortgage payment of $1,200.
The freeze will be available only to homeowners who have not fallen behind on their payments at the lower introductory rates and who are living in the homes. This requirement would exclude people who bought investment properties hoping to profit from the housing boom.
Also excluded are people who can afford the higher payments. The administration expects these people will move as soon as they can to refinance to more affordable fixed-rate loans.
The administration also highlighted other efforts aimed at dealing with the mortgage crisis and strengthening efforts to attack predatory lending, which critics say was a primary culprit in luring people into mortgages they could not afford.
The Federal Reserve will announce stronger lending standards this month, while the Housing and Urban Development Department and federal banking regulators are acting to improve disclosure requirements, Bush said.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said the proposals were a "welcome step in helping Americans protect their homes and communities from the consequences of unnecessary foreclosures." Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, who led the weeks of negotiations with the mortgage industry, said the new approach is "not a silver bullet" but should provide significant relief.
The big sticking point in the negotiations was getting investors who had purchased the mortgages after they were bundled into securities to agree to lower interest payments. Critics have said even with a deal, there are likely to be lawsuits although the plan's supporters said they believed it will withstand legal challenges.
George Miller, executive director of the American Securitization Forum, which represents companies that package mortgages into mortgage-backed securities, told reporters he expected the industry would face suits from investors unhappy that the original terms of the mortgages have been modified.
www.ruffcommunications.com
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