So much to learn from the Huckabee surge

With all the talk about the surprising Huckabee surge in Illinois polls, and the big deal that so many "radical rightwingers" are running as Huckabee delegates, I've got to admit, I'm pretty excited for them all.

At the end of October, when I emailed the Huckabee campaign contact, he didn't know anything about getting delegates on the primary slate. I called for guys like Huckabee and Cox to stop dreaming. The incredible surge means there's real enthusiasm for Huckabee - and what he stands for -- that is translating into impromptu organization right here in blue Illinois.

I got a call last night from Elroy Leach, who's running as a Huckabee delegate in the 2nd Congressional District (that's where Jesse Jackson Jr is Congressman).

Elroy told me about his great admiration for Mike Huckabee, how Huckabee was the only Republican who had the courage and respect for black voters to attend the NAACP's recent presidential debate. Huckabee, he said, was praised by Princeton University professor and commentator Cornell West, who said he agreed with Huckabee's moral values.

Elroy was one of a group of young Cook County African-Americans who ran for state office in 2004, and who was ignored and brushed aside by the House Republicans. I wrote about them two weeks ago in the Southtown Star.

But you've got to admire these guys' tenacity and commitment to breaking through the Republican Party's wall. Elroy is now running for Ward Committeeman and hopes to make a difference in the Cook County GOP.

Elroy and others, such as Matteson's Dr. Eric Wallace who's running as a Fred Thompson delegate in the same congressional district, should be encouraged by Republicans this time around. Hopefully, someone at the IL GOP headquarters is paying attention.

The IL GOP elite and their commitment to the Democrat-lite Giuliani could end up being a very, very big embarrassment. It will show that THEY -- the Old Guard -- are the reason Democrats rule and reign in Illinois. It's time to stop blaming the alive and well energetic conservative Republican base.

There's much to learn from the current Huckabee surge.

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The Republicans Find Their Obama

The Republicans Find Their Obama
By FRANK RICH
Published: December 9, 2007

COULD 2008 actually end up being a showdown between the author of "The Audacity of Hope" and the new Man from Hope, Ark.?

It sounds preposterous, but Washington’s shock over Mike Huckabee’s sudden rise in the polls — he "came from nowhere," Robert Novak huffed last week — makes you wonder. Having failed to anticipate so much else, including the Barack Obama polling surge of days earlier, the press pack has proved an unreliable guide to election 2008. What the Beltway calls unthinkable today keeps turning out to be front-page news tomorrow.

The prevailing Huckabee narrative maintains that he’s benefiting strictly from the loyalty of the religious right. Evangelical Christians are belatedly rallying around one of their own, a Baptist preacher, rather than settling for a Mormon who until recently supported abortion rights or a thrice-married New Yorker who still does. But that doesn’t explain Mr. Huckabee’s abrupt ascent to first place in some polling nationwide, where Christian conservatives account for a far smaller slice of the Republican pie than in Iowa. Indeed, this theory doesn’t entirely explain Mr.
Huckabee’s steep rise in Iowa, where Mitt Romney has outspent him 20 to 1, a financial advantage that Mr. Romney leveraged to crush him in the state’s straw poll just four months ago.

What really may be going on here is a mirror image of the phenomenon that has upended Hillary Clinton’s "inevitability" among Democrats. Like Senator Obama, Mr. Huckabee is the youngest in his party’s field. (At 52, he’s also younger than every Democratic contender except Mr. Obama, who is 46.) Both men have a history of speaking across party and racial lines. Both men possess that rarest of commodities in American public life: wit. Most important, both men aspire (not always successfully) to avoid the hyper-partisanship of the Clinton-Bush era.

Though their views on issues are often antithetical, Mr. Huckabee and Mr. Obama may be united in catching the wave of an emerging zeitgeist that is larger than either party’s ideology.
An exhausted and disillusioned public may be ready for a replay of the New Frontier pitch of 1960. That pitch won’t come from Mr. Romney, a glib salesman who seems a dead ringer for Don Draper, a Madison Avenue ad man of no known core convictions who works on the Nixon campaign in the TV series, "Mad Men." Mr. Romney’s effort to channel J.F.K. last week, in which he mentioned the word Mormon exactly once, was hardly a profile in courage.

The fact to remember about Mr. Huckabee’s polling spike is that it occurred just after the G.O.P. YouTube debate on CNN, where Mr. Romney and Rudy Giuliani vied to spray the most spittle at illegal immigrants. Congressman Tom Tancredo of Colorado, the fringe candidate whose most recent ads accuse the invading hordes of "pushing drugs, raping kids, destroying lives," accurately accused his opponents of trying to "out-Tancredo Tancredo."
Next to this mean-spiritedness, Mr. Huckabee’s tone leapt off the screen. Attacked by Mr. Romney for supporting an Arkansas program aiding the children of illegal immigrants, he replied, "In all due respect, we’re a better country than to punish children for what their parents did." It was a winning moment, politically as well as morally. And a no-brainer at that. Given that Mr. Tancredo polls at 4 percent among Iowan Republicans and zero nationally, it’s hard to see why Rudy-Romney thought it was smart to try to out-Tancredo Tancredo.

Mr. Huckabee’s humane stand wasn’t an election-year flip-flop. As governor, he decried a bill denying health services to illegal immigrants as "race-baiting" even though its legislator sponsor was a fellow Baptist preacher. Mr. Huckabee’s record on race in general (and in attracting African-American votes) is dramatically at odds with much of his party. Only last year Republicans brought us both "macaca" and a television ad portraying the black Democratic Senate candidate in Tennessee, Harold Ford Jr., as a potential despoiler of white women.

Unlike Rudy-Romney, Mr. Huckabee showed up for the PBS presidential debate held at the historically black Morgan State University in September. Afterward, he met Cornel West, an Obama supporter who deeply disagrees with Mr. Huckabee about abortion and much else. I asked Dr. West for his take last week. After effusively praising Mr. Huckabee as unique among the G.O.P. contenders, Dr. West said: "I told him, ‘You are for real.’ Black voters in Arkansas aren’t stupid. They know he’s sincere about fighting racism and poverty."

Though Mr. Romney’s hastily scheduled speech last week has been greeted by Washington as an essential antidote to the religious bigotry that’s supposedly doing him in, this entire issue may be a red herring. Mr. Romney’s Mormonism has hardly been a secret until now, and Mr.
Huckabee’s eagerness to milk his status as a certified "Christian leader" has been equally transparent from the campaign’s start. Was there really a rising tide of anti-Mormon sentiment in Iowa over the past month, or is Mr. Romney just playing victim?

The real reason for Mr. Huckabee’s ascendance may be that his message is simply more uplifting — and, in the ethical rather than theological sense, more Christian — than that of rivals whose main calling cards of fear, torture and nativism have become more strident with every debate. The fresh-faced politics of joy may be trumping the five-o’clock-shadow of Nixonian gloom and paranoia favored by the entire G.O.P. field with the sometime exception of John McCain.

On the same day of Mr. Romney’s speech, two new polls found Mr. Huckabee with a substantial lead over him and Mr. Giuliani in South Carolina, a stunning reversal from a month ago. Don’t be surprised if a desperate Mitt, who has "accidentally" referred to Mr. Obama as "Osama," does desperate things. South Carolina’s 2000 Republican primary was a jamboree of race-baiting that included a whispering campaign branding Senator McCain as the father of an illegitimate black child. The local political operative who worked for George W. Bush in that race and engineered the infamous Bush visit to Bob Jones University is now in Mr. Romney’s employ.

Mr. Huckabee may well be doomed in the long term. He has little money or organization. He’s so ignorant of foreign affairs that he hadn’t heard of the National Intelligence Estimate on Iran a day after its release. His sometimes wacky economic populism riles his party’s most important constituency, Wall Street. And who knows how many other Arkansas scandals will be disinterred along with the paroled serial rapist who popped out last week? That Mr. Huckabee has gotten as far as he has shows just how in sync his benign style is with the cultural moment.

To understand why he can’t be completely dismissed, consider last month’s Wall Street Journal-NBC News poll. Peter Hart, the Democratic half of the bipartisan team that conducts the survey, told me in an interview last week that an overwhelming majority of voters of both parties not only want change but also regard "reducing the partisan fighting in government" as high on their agenda. To his surprise, Mr. Hart found that there’s even a majority (59 percent) seeking a president who would help America in "regaining respect around the world."

This climate, of course, favors the Democrats, especially if the Republicans choose a candidate who brands them as the party of rage and fear — and even more especially if their Tancredo-ism drives a large Hispanic turnout for the national Democratic ticket in Florida, Nevada,
Colorado, New Mexico and Arizona. But a Democratic victory is not guaranteed. The huge spread in the Journal-NBC poll between an unnamed Democrat and Republican in the presidential race — 50 to 35 percent — shrank to a 1 percent lead when Mrs. Clinton was pitted against Mr. Giuliani.

Mr. Obama’s campaign, though hardly the long shot of Mr. Huckabee’s, could also fall short. But the Clinton camp’s panic over his rise in the Iowa polls shows that he’s on the right tactical track.

The more polarizing and negative a candidate turns in style, the more that candidate risks playing Nixon to Mr. Obama’s Kennedy. That Mrs. Clinton’s minions would attack Mr. Obama for unseemly ambition because he wrote a kindergarten report called "I Want to Become President" — and then snidely belittle the press for falling for "a joke" once this gambit backfired — is Rudy-Romneyesque in its vituperative folly.

Experience, like nastiness, may also prove a dead end in the year ahead. In 1960, the experience card was played by all comers against the young upstart senator from Massachusetts. In Iowa, L.B.J. went so far as to tell voters that they should vote for "a man with a little gray in his hair." But experience, Kennedy would memorably counter, "is like taillights on a boat which illuminate where we have been when we should be focusing on where we should be going."

The most experienced candidate in 2008 is not Mrs. Clinton, Mr. Giuliani or Mr. Romney in any case. It’s Mr. McCain, Joe Biden, Chris Dodd and Bill Richardson who have the longest résumés. Mr. Huckabee and Mr. Obama, meanwhile, are both betting that this is another crossroads, like 1960, when Americans are hungry for a leader who will refocus the nation on the path ahead.

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Front-runners are no shows at GOP debate

Front-runners are no shows at GOP debate
By Alex Wong

Republican presidential hopeful former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee speaks as he stands next to an empty podium which was prepared for former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani during the debate Thursday night in Baltimore.

BALTIMORE (AP) — Republican presidential candidates discussed the importance of reaching out to people of color during a minority issues debate Thursday night and criticized the leading four GOP contenders for skipping it.

"I think this is a disgrace that they are not here," said Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback. "I think it's a disgrace to our country. I think it's bad for our party, and I don't think it's good for our future."
Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee said he was "embarrassed for our party, and I'm embarrassed for those who didn't come."

The four no-shows — former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, former Sen. Fred Thompson, Arizona Sen. John McCain and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney — cited scheduling conflicts in saying they could not attend the debate at historically black Morgan State University.

"Fortunately, there are those in the Republican Party who do understand the importance of reaching out to people of color," said talk show host Tavis Smiley, the debate moderator, thanking the six other candidates for participating.

Besides Brownback and Huckabee, the other candidates who participated in the debate were: Reps. Duncan Hunter of California, Ron Paul of Texas and Tom Tancredo of Colorado, and conservative activist Alan L. Keyes.

The forum, which had black and Hispanic journalists questioning the candidates, was broadcast live on PBS.

The candidates answered questions ranging from what they would do to help minorities, their views on illegal immigration, the war in Iraq, minority unemployment rates and their position on capital punishment.

Huckabee said he would want his legacy in helping minorities to be more equal treatment for them in the criminal justice system. Brownback said he would continue to push for the National Museum of African-American History and Culture in Washington. Keyes spoke of bringing more religious values into schools.

Paul received loud applause when he told the audience that minorities are unfairly punished in the criminal justice system. He also called for ending the war on drugs. "It isn't working," Paul said.

Among the Republicans who have criticized the leading contenders for skipping the forum are former House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia, and former Lt. Gov. Michael Steele, the first black official elected statewide in Maryland.

"I'm puzzled by their decision. I can't speak for them. I think it's a mistake," Gingrich, who is considering joining the race for the GOP nomination, said this week.
Smiley also moderated a debate in June among the Democratic presidential candidates at
Howard University in Washington, another historically black school.
Earlier this month, seven of eight Democratic candidates participated in a debate aired by Univision, the Spanish-language TV network. A Univision-sponsored GOP debate was canceled after only McCain agreed to participate.

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CBS Poll: Mike Huckabee Surging In Iowa November 13, 2007

CBS Poll: Mike Huckabee Surging In Iowa

Romney Leads, Ex-Arkansas Governor In Second With 21 Percent; Top Three Democrats Deadlocked

NEW YORK, Nov. 13, 2007
Campaign 2008

A glimpse at presidential hopefuls and a fund-raising overview as the campaign gears up.

Section
CBS News Polls
Read the latest polls done by CBS News polling unit.
·
(CBS) Mike Huckabee, is making a big move on Mitt Romney's long-held position as the front-runner among Iowa Republicans, according to a new CBS News/New York Times poll. While Romney still holds the lead at 27 percent in the poll, Huckabee comes in a strong second at 21 percent, with a 5 percent margin of error. The poll also shows that Democrats are headed toward a heated showdown in Iowa, where Hillary Clinton holds a statistically insignificant lead over John Edwards and Barack Obama. Among likely caucus-goers, Clinton came out on top with 25 percent support, but she was trailed closely by Edwards at 23 percent, and Obama at 22 percent. With a margin of error of 4 percentage points, there is no clear leader. Trailing behind was Bill Richardson, at 12 percent, with all other candidates in single digits. The situation in Iowa, where nominating caucuses are scheduled for Jan. 3, is in stark contrast to New Hampshire, where Clinton and Romney continue to hold large leads among those likely to vote in the state's first-in-the-nation primary, which could come only days after Iowa's contests. But in both states, large chunks of voters have yet to make up their minds, meaning the results of the contests that will kick off the 2008 nominating season are still difficult to predict.

While the Democratic contest in Iowa has been a three-way battle for some time, most polls have shown Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, with a strong lead in the Hawkeye State, dominating the GOP field. Recent surveys have shown Huckabee picking up steam, but the CBS News/New York Times represents his best showing to date. In the poll, Rudy Giuliani was in third in Iowa at 15 percent. All other candidates were in single digits, including Fred Thompson, who had 9 percent support among likely caucus-goers. While Huckabee's strong showing would seem to be a surprise, CBSNews.com senior political editor Vaughn Ververs said it's the attention he's paid to the state coupled with his conservative message that is paying dividends. "A poll, of course, is simply a snapshot in time and we'll need to see more evidence of a Huckabee surge before buying into it totally," "But it's not surprising to see him gaining. Iowa is a state tailor made for Huckabee's candidacy and message." (Read more in CBSNews.com's campaign blog, Horserace) "Huckabee is a very good candidate in the sense he makes a very good appearance," CBS News chief Washington correspondent Bob Schieffer said. "I think that Huckabee actually has a chance to win out there… If he does, that puts a whole new spin on the race." "I'm still not sure he would be the favorite to get the nomination, but he's certainly going to be a factor as we move on down the road," Schieffer added. While Romney still has the lead in Iowa, his support base is softer than that of Huckabee, a former Arkansas governor whose campaign has gained momentum in recent weeks. Half of Huckabee supporters said they had made up their mind, compared to two-thirds of Romney supporters who said they could change their mind before caucus night. Overall, 57 percent of GOP caucus-goers said they haven't settled on one candidate. Huckabee could run into trouble if immigration is as important an issue as the poll indicates.

When asked what issue candidates should discuss, illegal immigration topped the list at 20 percent, and 44 percent of caucus-goers said illegal immigrants should lose their jobs and leave the country. Huckabee has been criticized for supporting pre-natal care for immigrants and educational opportunities for the children of immigrants, and only 13 percent said Huckabee agreed with them on this issue, compared to 26 percent for Romney. However, immigration may not be a deal-breaker: 75 percent said they could support a candidate who is less conservative than they are.

This could offer hope to Huckabee, but not to Giuliani. While 38 percent said he was the most electable of the GOP candidates, likely caucus-goers were split nearly evenly on whether they could support a candidate who disagreed with them on social issues like abortion and gay marriage - Giuliani favors abortion rights and supports extending gay rights, though he does not support same-sex marriage.

Meanwhile, on the Democratic side in Iowa, the contest appears also appears to going right down to the wire. None of the top three has firmed up their support yet - about half of those backing each candidate said they could change their minds before caucus night. Despite that fluidity, there are some clear patterns that show how important it will be for each candidate to turn out certain groups of voters: Women have a strong preference for Clinton, while those under the age of 45 give Obama a double-digit lead.

Obama and Clinton are nearly tied for support among first-time caucus-goers, but previous attendees give Edwards a narrow edge over Clinton. The findings indicate that if older and established voters dominate turnout, the caucuses could be a two-way contest between Clinton and Edwards. If the Obama campaign succeeds in its bid to bring young voters and first-time caucus-goers out on Jan. 3, however, it could leave Iowa with a win and a crucial momentum boost headed into later contests.

Doing so will be a challenge: Only a third of possible first-time attendees say they will "definitely" attend the caucuses, compared with six in 10 of previous attendees. One factor in Obama's favor is that nearly two-thirds of the state's independent voters who plan on voting on Jan. 3 say they'll attend the Democratic caucus. Obama attracts the support of 37 percent of those voters, compared to only 17 percent for Edwards and 15 percent for Clinton. The priorities of Iowans will also be crucial. Clinton is seen as the most electable in November 2008 by a wide margin.

However, Obama is clearly seen as the most likely to bring about change in Washington and Edwards holds a strong edge on the question of who understands the problems of Iowans. Edwards and Obama may also want to spend time making sure supporters of second-tier candidates see them favorably: Among those favoring other candidates besides them and Clinton, Edwards was the second choice of 30 percent, while Obama was close behind at 27 percent. A supporter of any candidate getting less than 15 percent support on the first count at a caucus is allowed to switch to another candidate or enter an "uncommitted" group.

As contentious as Iowa is, the next state on the campaign calendar, New Hampshire, is far less competitive. Among likely Democratic primary voters, Clinton has 37 percent support, putting her 15 points ahead of Obama. Among Republicans, Romney continues to dominate. He was backed by 34 percent in the poll, while John McCain and Giuliani both trailed at 16 percent.

All other candidates were in single digits. Clinton's support in the Granite State is solid. Though 52 percent of voters say they could change their mind, 62 percent of Clinton supporters "strongly favor" the New York senator and former first lady. As in Iowa, her experience is the top reason people are supporting her. Many New Hampshire Republicans also have yet to make up their minds, even more so than Democrats.

Among likely GOP primary voters, 66 percent said they hadn't made up their minds. Romney, unlike Clinton, has yet to solidify his support - only 31 percent of Romney backers said they had made up their mind. More than half of his supporters have reservations about him or are behind him because they dislike other candidates in the race. And the poll indicates Romney's religion could be a problem: more than one-in-four voters said they know someone who would not vote for a Mormon candidate.

CBS News and The New York Times conducted telephone interviews with 1273 likely caucus-goers in Iowa November 2-11, 2007 and 719 likely primary voters in New Hampshire November 9-12, 2007. The error due to sampling could be 4 points for Iowa Democratic caucus-goers, 5 points for Iowa Republican caucus-goers, and likely New Hampshire Democratic voters, and 6 points for likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire.

In New Hampshire, sampling was done using standard RDD probability selection processes. In Iowa, the sample was drawn from three sources: the state of Iowa’s registered voter list (matched to phone numbers where possible), an RDD phone sample with numbers that matched numbers on the registered voter list eliminated (in order to sample phone numbers unavailable on the state list), and a small cell phone sample. Results were weighted by probabilities of selection and by demographic characteristics to reflect the New Hampshire adult population and the Iowa registered voter list.

To create the probable electorates for each state, registered voters were also weighted by their intention of voting, their attention to the campaign, and factors related to their past voting behavior. Likely caucus-goers in Iowa represent 17% of the registered voter population; likely voters in New Hampshire represent 59% of the state’s registered voter population.

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The Real Deal - Real Clear Politics November 14, 2007

November 14, 2007

The Real Deal

It's official: Mike Huckabee is really, actually, shockingly on the move, and in a big way. The latest polls out of Iowa, dating back to the middle of October, show what is now more than a few good days for the former Arkansas Governor: They show him clearly, solidly in second place in the GOP race. That's a huge accomplishment for a guy with no money.
In a mid-October University of Iowa [PDF] poll, Huckabee was tied for second place. In subsequent polls from American Research Group, Zogby, CBS/New York Times [PDF] and Strategic Vision, he's in second place by himself, by as many as seven points, in the Strategic Vision poll, and six points, in the CBS/NYT poll. He trails only Mitt Romney, though by 12.8 points in the latest RCP Iowa Average.
The Huckmentum is unbelievable, considering that Huckabee has fewer staffers total than Romney has in Iowa alone. But with Sam Brownback out of the race, and despite big evangelical endorsements for Romney, Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson and John McCain, could it be that rank-and-file Christian conservatives are making Huckabee the candidate of their choice?
If so, look for Huckabee to sustain his momentum. The Iowa Christian vote is estimated by some to be as high as 40% of the GOP base. If Huckabee can form a coalition of even half those voters, he will vault himself into serious contention. For the record, Politics Nation said Huckabee would do well as far back as December of 2005, though we will admit that we were selling more stock than we were buying in recent months.
Posted by Reid Wilson

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America's Mayor is on a Roll November 9, 2007

November 09, 2007
America's Mayor Is on a Roll
By Lawrence Kudlow

While Hillary Clinton is slipping in the polls, Rudy Giuliani is on a roll. This is a big swing of momentum. Even the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC poll puts the two frontrunners in a dead heat.

Sen. Clinton was hurt badly by her flip-flopping performance in last month's Democratic debate. America's mayor, on the other hand, just got a hugely important endorsement from the Rev. Pat Robertson. The message to social conservatives is clear: It's now OK to vote for Rudy.

Why Rudy? Robertson named out-of-control federal spending, appointing conservative judges, reducing crime and, perhaps most importantly, "the overriding issue (of) defending against (the) bloodlust of Islamic terrorists," as issues that strongly favor Giuliani. On the other hand, he called abortion -- something of a sticky subject for Giuliani -- "only one issue" of importance.
The endorsement also suggests that evangelicals are divided on 2008. Indeed, there's no monolithic movement in favor of any major candidate. This is critical. It means no third-party candidacy from the Christian right.

Recall that Bill and Hillary Clinton benefited enormously in 1992 when Ross Perot swiped 19 percent of the vote (most of those Republican) in the race against Papa Bush. And when Perot ran again in '96, he undoubtedly drained votes from Sen. Bob Dole. (I note that Bill Clinton didn't garner 50 percent of the vote in either of these elections.) But Robertson has very likely removed this dynamic. No third-party gifts for Hillary in 2008.

Robertson is a big score for Giuliani, right when he's gaining ground on Mitt Romney in New Hampshire. That said, Romney is still up 15 points in New Hampshire, according to Scott Rasmussen's poll, and 9.5 points, as per the RealClearPolitics average. So you know what? Good for Romney.

To be very clear, I am not picking sides here. I do think Romney is running a strong campaign. And he's gaining strength as a candidate. I also think John McCain is finding his sea legs on the campaign trail. Romney, McCain and Giuliani are all strengthening what they say and how they say it. But at this writing, Giuliani appears to be at the top of his game.

When I interviewed him last week on CNBC, it marked the fourth time we had sat down together this year. But something was different. Giuliani was more in command of a wide breadth of issues, while there was a lot less talk about his considerable accomplishments as mayor of New York City.

For example, when I asked him what a President Giuliani would do to prop up the sagging dollar, he immediately reeled off a series of proposals: Cut spending, and stop the earmarks. Deregulate wherever possible. Curb the stranglehold of Sarbanes-Oxley on the securities market. Make sure there's no new Sarbox for home-loan mortgage credits. Keep the trial lawyers from launching class-action lawsuits against mortgage-security investors, which would only cripple housing credit in the future. Restore confidence in the economy by stopping Charlie Rangel's mother-of-all-tax-hikes proposal.

That was some list. He also came out for cutting the corporate income tax -- both as a pro-growth job creator and as a way to boost the sagging fortunes of the dollar. He's right on both counts. In particular, he was emphatic about reducing the corporate tax so we can better compete with Europe (read the euro).

Grow the economy. Create more jobs. Strengthen worker wages. Giuliani was on fire. In fact, at the end of the interview, as we were walking off the set, he confided in me that he would suggest an immediate corporate-tax-cut proposal to President Bush. Giuliani wants results. And he knows he can win.

"I can beat her," Giuliani said. "I can run in key states other Republicans can't run in. That's why Democrats are attacking me."

I still believe that it's a strong Republican field. And I still believe Hillary Clinton's message of heavy spending, middle-class entitlements and higher taxes is a Mondale-era loser. But there's no doubt about it, America's mayor is on a roll.

Lawrence Kudlow is a former Reagan economic advisor, a syndicated columnist, and the host of CNBC's Kudlow & Company. Visit his blog, Kudlow's Money Politics.

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Huckabee Can Win in Iowa November 07, 2007

November 07, 2007
Huckabee Can Win in Iowa
By Dick Morris

Mike Huckabee is on a roll. Nationally, I just won my bet with Bill O’Reilly when he broke 10 percent in the latest CNN poll. And in Iowa, he is now running second. Mitt Romney is in the lead at 27 percent, according to the latest American Research survey, with Huckabee nipping at his heels at 19 percent. Rudy Giuliani is in third at 16. John McCain still has a residue of 14 percent support left, and Fred Thompson, fading fast, is down to 8 percent.

So Huckabee is within striking distance. When Perrier had to cope with the scandal about the alleged adulteration of its product, it was evident that all the beverage had going for it was its purity. It had no taste. Compromise its purity and it was sunk. Romney is in much the same situation. His candidacy is based on his being an alternative to Giuliani, conservative on social issues. But if his purity is compromised, he could be in trouble.

But Romney was once pro-life. Then he ran in Massachusetts and became pro-choice. Then he decided to run in the Republican primary for president and he became pro-life again. His flip-flop-flip may get him in big trouble in Iowa.

Rudy is, of course, pro-choice. McCain, rightly or wrongly, was criticized for hurting the social conservative movement by limiting its ability to spend money on its pet causes in the McCain-Feingold legislation. And Fred Thompson lobbied for a pro-choice abortion-rights group in the early 1990s and has been squishy on the issue ever since.
That leaves Mike Huckabee as the only pure pro-life candidate, a social conservative who has never moved to the left.

Huckabee could be vulnerable on his tax record in Arkansas, but his support for the Fair Tax likely wipes away that issue.
But Huckabee has no money. Yet, despite a total absence of advertising, he has risen steadily in Iowa from single digits to double digits to second place. Indeed, his lack of funding may be creating a reverse chic, attracting voters who are turned off by the massive hard sell of the other campaigns.

So what happens if Huckabee keeps rising and wins in Iowa? It likely sets up a three-way contest in New Hampshire, with Huckabee, Romney and Giuliani facing off against one another. Romney has the money. Rudy has the stardom. And Huckabee would have the momentum.

This all may be a pipe dream, but in a caucus state, where turnout is low and enthusiasm is at a premium, Huckabee’s demonstrated ability to generate passion among his followers would stand him in good stead.

Remember what happened in Ames, Iowa, where Romney won the straw poll based largely on his ability to write $35 checks to enroll his voters in the paid admission-only event. Huckabee finished a strong second with 18 percent of the vote even though his voters had to pay their own way. Huckabee said, “I can’t afford to buy you. I can’t even afford to rent you.”

And at the Values Convention, Romney once again papered the house with paid-for absentee voters who enrolled for $1 each and voted for Mitt. Huckabee, with no money, addressed the gathering and stirred such passion that he swept the votes of most who were there and finished second, again.

Right now Iowa looks like a Romney rout. But Huckabee could surprise everybody before the votes are counted. Morris, a former political adviser to Sen. Trent Lott (R-Miss.) and President Bill Clinton, is the author of “Outrage.” To get all of Dick Morris’s and Eileen McGann’s columns for free by email, go to http://www.dickmorris.com/.

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J.C. WATTS: Does GOP care about the black vote? October 2007

J.C. WATTS: Does GOP care about the black vote?

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I've noted in presidential campaigns present and past that most viable candidates are always looking to "enlarge their territory" by appearing before groups that may not be obvious constituencies.
To wit: Seven short years after referring to Jerry Falwell, Pat Robertson and other evangelical leaders as "agents of intolerance," John McCain was the commencement speaker at Falwell's Liberty University this past spring.
This is referred to in political circles as expanding your base. Or mending fences.
To wit again: Rudy Giuliani, America's mayor, who has not been known as a friend of the Second Amendment, recently addressed the national convention of the National Rifle Association. This speech came complete with an "unexpected" phone call from Mrs. America's Mayor, whereupon Mr. Mayor asked if she wanted to "say hello" to the conventioneers. How endearing.
This too, is a base-expanding, fence-mending operation.
This leads me to observe the obvious oversight (diplomatically speaking) of many of the Republican candidates for president this year.
I've heard an adage over the years that applies in this case: "If you are to be an alternative, you have to be where the alternative is needed."
For longer than I've been involved in the political process, the Republican establishment has claimed to want to provide an alternative for the black community, yet party elite refuse to show up for the game.
The more I ponder some of the boneheaded decisions GOP candidates have made of late, I can't bring myself to believe that they are serious about capturing more than about 8 percent of the black vote.
I have often said one of the reasons more blacks don't support Republicans is because they don't trust the GOP establishment. I can, without fear of contradiction, assure you the Conventional Wisdom Caucus and the Status Quo Caucus and the same-old-tired-establishment consultants are running the GOP front-runners' campaigns -- and aiming to get no more than 1/12th of the black vote.
As evidence, I point to Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo, who was the only Republican presidential candidate to speak at the Urban League convention in July, and the fact that none of the Big Four GOP candidates showed up at Morgan State University (a historically black college) for a candidate forum hosted by National Public Radio commentator Tavis Smiley. Hmmm.
I'm perplexed by these actions because candidates say one thing about inclusion and outreach but they do another. How can you do outreach and not reach out? Not showing up for these events was a grievous and inexplicable error. I certainly don't consider inclusion to be baking a cake, then having me watch as everyone else eats it, as today's consultants would seemingly have us believe.
Inclusion is asking me to help in making the cake, and sharing in its tasty delight. This is the message the presidential candidates send when they show up at these forums.
Once in the general election, and safely out of the cloistered world of Republican primary politics, our nominee will want to trot out black faces -- usually black Republicans -- to try to win the black vote. This is insulting when you consider he likely didn't show up at events that were established to reach out to the black community. Trust me, these candidates will pay a price in the general election.
Republican candidates avoiding the Urban League and the Morgan State debate is as nonsensical as saying "I want a bath, but I don't want to get wet."
The excuse du jour -- "I had a scheduling conflict" -- is the campaign equivalent of "my dog ate my homework." All of us, in campaigns and life, make time for things that are important to us. It's a matter of priorities. One can only conclude that growing the base of our party isn't a priority to the GOP establishment. Not only that, but when national candidates make a decision to avoid these events, they put every loyal Republican activist at the state, county and even precinct level on the defensive.
The bottom line is, you can spin it, but you can't defend it.
One of my Republican friends asked me if I thought the candidates skipped these events because of the black audiences they would face. I can't presume to read their hearts and minds, but I do have to admit that it did cross my mind.
J.C. Watts (JCWatts01@jcwatts.com) is chairman of J.C. Watts Companies, a business consulting group. He is former chairman of the Republican Conference of the U.S. House, where he served as an Oklahoma representative from 1995 to 2002. He writes twice monthly for the Review-Journal.

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