Political HaySurge Protection
By Jennifer Rubin
Published 1/10/2008 12:08:49 AM
Six months ago, pundits were predicting that congressional Republicans' patience with the Iraq war had run out. Led by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, they were going to storm the Oval Office, deliver the news that no more funding would be forthcoming and thereby save their skins in the 2008 elections. Things have a funny way of working out.
General Petraeus did not just win the rhetorical argument in September because MoveOn.org overplayed its hand. He won because facts on the ground had shifted, Democrats who returned reported significant progress and commentators not known for their support of the war concurred that the surge was working. President Bush got his breathing room.
Fast forward a few months. Now the editorial pages of the Wall Street Journal and the Washington Post are in agreement. The Democrats' unseemly denial of reality and refusal to recognize the surge has indeed worked has become painfully obvious. Popular opinion on the war has turned and continued funding seems assured. While the future of Iraq's political stability remains in doubt, those who supported the surge are no longer the ones with egg on their faces.
The political ramifications of the last six months are now being played out in the presidential primaries. On the Democratic side Barack Obama's claim to fame -- opposing the war from the get-go -- and determination to withdraw troops immediately may, to some segment of the Democratic electorate, seem oddly out of sync. His anti-war credentials, while still overwhelmingly lauded by the Democratic base, pack a less powerful punch now that the Iraq war has disappeared from the front pages.
ON THE REPUBLICAN side the results are starker. John McCain has revived his political fortunes based in large part on his role in criticizing Donald Rumsfeld and supporting a revision of the Iraq strategy when other Republicans were "looking at their shoes." This offers more than "I told you so" brownie points for him. It clearly places his commander-in-chief credentials above all rivals and cements his image as the "straight talker" who does not trim his views to popular opinion. He has been able to utilize his support of the surge to advance the notion that despite his lifetime in Washington he is indeed the most effect "agent of change" in the race.
The success of the surge has also complicated the plans of McCain's opponents. While Romney tried to leave wiggle room if the surge did not work as planned (it only was "apparently" succeeding he told a debate audience in New Hampshire in September), his less-than-full-throated support looks less wise in retrospect. Coupled with the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, the surge and McCain's support for it has arguably made Romney's CEO experience looks less relevant than McCain's. McCain can credibly argue that it is not simply enough for a president to collect information and assemble advisers (who often disagree).
To look ahead to the general election, the surge may also have changed the landscape for the Republicans as a whole. If progress continues, the GOP will not face searing headlines and escalating body counts. The traditional image of the GOP as the more responsible and less skittish party in national security may be restored somewhat and the Democrats' willingness to "cut and run" again becomes a viable campaign issue.
So the lessons of the surge are familiar ones, but ones repeatedly forgotten by politicians anxious to seek safer ground in any controversy. Short-term political gain does not always translate into long-term electoral success. The public in the end will reward political courage -- in part because it is so rare.
And once again, political prognostication is a fool's game given the inability to foresee events weeks, let alone months, down the road. When in doubt and when all else fails, Republicans might be advised to do the right thing -- be resolute against American foes, trust reliable advice from our military, and ignore the howls from the media and liberal establishment.
In the end, it just might pay off.Jennifer Rubin writes from northern Virginia.
www.ruffcommunications.com
Showing posts with label Romney. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Romney. Show all posts
Thursday, January 10, 2008
Wednesday, December 26, 2007
Romney symbolizes GOP's problems
STAR PARKER
Romney symbolizes GOP's problems
December 26, 2007
It's doubtful that anyone needs any more reasons to explain why Americans are fed up with politics as usual. Nevertheless, Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney has given us one more.
Apparently when Romney said, “I saw my father march with Martin Luther King,” in his much publicized “Faith in America” speech, this was not exactly true.
It appears that not only did Romney not see this, but there is serious doubt whether his father ever indeed did march with Dr. King.
Romney now says that he meant this “figuratively.”
According to the former Massachusetts governor, “If you look at the literature or the dictionary the term 'saw' includes being aware of in the sense I have described. It is a figure of speech. . . .”
We haven't seen a politician parse a sentence like this since Bill Clinton dissected the meaning of the verb “is” and explained that it was Monica who had sex with him and not the other way around.
The next sentence in the speech following the King claim was, “I saw my parents provide compassionate care to others, in personal ways nearby. . . .” Also figuratively?
The Detroit Free Press says it has no record of Romney's father, onetime Michigan Gov. George Romney, ever marching with King. According to the Free Press, when Dr. King marched in Detroit, their archives show that Romney's father did not participate because he said his religion prohibited him from public appearances on Sunday.
How ironic that Romney chose to insert this apparent whopper in his “Faith in America” speech. Perhaps the governor's idea of faith is what Groucho Marx had in mind with his line, “Who are you going to believe, me or your own eyes?”
This kind of casualness with the truth is what has alienated good citizens across the country from the elites who are running our political machinery.
The Pew Research Center reports as its No. 1 public opinion story of 2007 the “sour mood of the public.” A Gallup poll just out puts the number of Americans who “are satisfied with the way things are going in the U.S.” at 27 percent.
This dissatisfaction carries over into low approval ratings for the president and even lower ratings for the Congress.
Americans are unhappy with the status quo and hence the surprise showings of candidates such as Barack Obama, Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul. They're sick of detached, elitist, power-hungry candidates whose personal agenda is something other than genuine concern for people and clear and honest principles.
In a recent Pew survey, only 34 percent agreed with the statement “Most elected officials care what people like me think.” Twenty years ago in 1987, 47 percent agreed with this statement.
The bad news for Republicans is that prevailing disillusionment is disproportionately toward and within their party.
According to Pew, 33 percent of Americans now identify as Democrats, up 2 points from 31 percent five years ago. Twenty five percent now identify as Republicans, down 5 points from five years ago.
In addition to this, 17 percent of independents now lean Democratic, up 6 points from five years ago and 11 percent of independents now lean Republican, down one point from five years ago.
This overall shift in sentiment toward the Democratic Party, however, reflects disillusionment with Republicans rather than enthusiasm for Democrats. The current favorability rating for the Democratic Party is at 54 percent, exactly where it was after President Bush's victory in 2004. However, the current favorability rating for the Republican Party is 41 percent, down 11 points from 52 percent over the same period.
The point is that Americans have not suddenly fallen back in love with the liberals.
They have fallen out of love with a Republican Party that was supposed to be carrying the banner of traditional values and limited government, whom they no longer trust to do so.
When Reagan ran against the entrenched political establishment in 1980, the sentiment toward him was similar to what we hear today about Mike Huckabee. How could this guy – a class B actor, former sportscaster, with a bachelor's degree from Eureka College in Illinois – be running for president of the United States?
But Reagan had been traveling and speaking around the country for years. He knew the country and he knew its people. When he ran against government and the establishment, these folks felt he was representing them.
But now Republicans have become a detached ruling elite like the Democrats that Reagan ran against. And they have alienated a chunk of the grass roots within their own party, and independents that Reagan had wooed in.
Republicans can win back the hearts and minds of Americans. But they have to get real and get honest. Unlike the former governor of Massachusetts.
Parker, a nationally syndicated columnist, is president of CURE, Coalition on Urban Renewal and Education (http://www.urbanure.org/) and author of three books. She can be reached at parker@urbancure.org.
www.ruffcommunications.com
Romney symbolizes GOP's problems
December 26, 2007
It's doubtful that anyone needs any more reasons to explain why Americans are fed up with politics as usual. Nevertheless, Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney has given us one more.
Apparently when Romney said, “I saw my father march with Martin Luther King,” in his much publicized “Faith in America” speech, this was not exactly true.
It appears that not only did Romney not see this, but there is serious doubt whether his father ever indeed did march with Dr. King.
Romney now says that he meant this “figuratively.”
According to the former Massachusetts governor, “If you look at the literature or the dictionary the term 'saw' includes being aware of in the sense I have described. It is a figure of speech. . . .”
We haven't seen a politician parse a sentence like this since Bill Clinton dissected the meaning of the verb “is” and explained that it was Monica who had sex with him and not the other way around.
The next sentence in the speech following the King claim was, “I saw my parents provide compassionate care to others, in personal ways nearby. . . .” Also figuratively?
The Detroit Free Press says it has no record of Romney's father, onetime Michigan Gov. George Romney, ever marching with King. According to the Free Press, when Dr. King marched in Detroit, their archives show that Romney's father did not participate because he said his religion prohibited him from public appearances on Sunday.
How ironic that Romney chose to insert this apparent whopper in his “Faith in America” speech. Perhaps the governor's idea of faith is what Groucho Marx had in mind with his line, “Who are you going to believe, me or your own eyes?”
This kind of casualness with the truth is what has alienated good citizens across the country from the elites who are running our political machinery.
The Pew Research Center reports as its No. 1 public opinion story of 2007 the “sour mood of the public.” A Gallup poll just out puts the number of Americans who “are satisfied with the way things are going in the U.S.” at 27 percent.
This dissatisfaction carries over into low approval ratings for the president and even lower ratings for the Congress.
Americans are unhappy with the status quo and hence the surprise showings of candidates such as Barack Obama, Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul. They're sick of detached, elitist, power-hungry candidates whose personal agenda is something other than genuine concern for people and clear and honest principles.
In a recent Pew survey, only 34 percent agreed with the statement “Most elected officials care what people like me think.” Twenty years ago in 1987, 47 percent agreed with this statement.
The bad news for Republicans is that prevailing disillusionment is disproportionately toward and within their party.
According to Pew, 33 percent of Americans now identify as Democrats, up 2 points from 31 percent five years ago. Twenty five percent now identify as Republicans, down 5 points from five years ago.
In addition to this, 17 percent of independents now lean Democratic, up 6 points from five years ago and 11 percent of independents now lean Republican, down one point from five years ago.
This overall shift in sentiment toward the Democratic Party, however, reflects disillusionment with Republicans rather than enthusiasm for Democrats. The current favorability rating for the Democratic Party is at 54 percent, exactly where it was after President Bush's victory in 2004. However, the current favorability rating for the Republican Party is 41 percent, down 11 points from 52 percent over the same period.
The point is that Americans have not suddenly fallen back in love with the liberals.
They have fallen out of love with a Republican Party that was supposed to be carrying the banner of traditional values and limited government, whom they no longer trust to do so.
When Reagan ran against the entrenched political establishment in 1980, the sentiment toward him was similar to what we hear today about Mike Huckabee. How could this guy – a class B actor, former sportscaster, with a bachelor's degree from Eureka College in Illinois – be running for president of the United States?
But Reagan had been traveling and speaking around the country for years. He knew the country and he knew its people. When he ran against government and the establishment, these folks felt he was representing them.
But now Republicans have become a detached ruling elite like the Democrats that Reagan ran against. And they have alienated a chunk of the grass roots within their own party, and independents that Reagan had wooed in.
Republicans can win back the hearts and minds of Americans. But they have to get real and get honest. Unlike the former governor of Massachusetts.
Parker, a nationally syndicated columnist, is president of CURE, Coalition on Urban Renewal and Education (http://www.urbanure.org/) and author of three books. She can be reached at parker@urbancure.org.
www.ruffcommunications.com
Sunday, December 9, 2007
The Republicans Find Their Obama
The Republicans Find Their Obama
By FRANK RICH
Published: December 9, 2007
COULD 2008 actually end up being a showdown between the author of "The Audacity of Hope" and the new Man from Hope, Ark.?
It sounds preposterous, but Washington’s shock over Mike Huckabee’s sudden rise in the polls — he "came from nowhere," Robert Novak huffed last week — makes you wonder. Having failed to anticipate so much else, including the Barack Obama polling surge of days earlier, the press pack has proved an unreliable guide to election 2008. What the Beltway calls unthinkable today keeps turning out to be front-page news tomorrow.
The prevailing Huckabee narrative maintains that he’s benefiting strictly from the loyalty of the religious right. Evangelical Christians are belatedly rallying around one of their own, a Baptist preacher, rather than settling for a Mormon who until recently supported abortion rights or a thrice-married New Yorker who still does. But that doesn’t explain Mr. Huckabee’s abrupt ascent to first place in some polling nationwide, where Christian conservatives account for a far smaller slice of the Republican pie than in Iowa. Indeed, this theory doesn’t entirely explain Mr.
Huckabee’s steep rise in Iowa, where Mitt Romney has outspent him 20 to 1, a financial advantage that Mr. Romney leveraged to crush him in the state’s straw poll just four months ago.
What really may be going on here is a mirror image of the phenomenon that has upended Hillary Clinton’s "inevitability" among Democrats. Like Senator Obama, Mr. Huckabee is the youngest in his party’s field. (At 52, he’s also younger than every Democratic contender except Mr. Obama, who is 46.) Both men have a history of speaking across party and racial lines. Both men possess that rarest of commodities in American public life: wit. Most important, both men aspire (not always successfully) to avoid the hyper-partisanship of the Clinton-Bush era.
Though their views on issues are often antithetical, Mr. Huckabee and Mr. Obama may be united in catching the wave of an emerging zeitgeist that is larger than either party’s ideology.
An exhausted and disillusioned public may be ready for a replay of the New Frontier pitch of 1960. That pitch won’t come from Mr. Romney, a glib salesman who seems a dead ringer for Don Draper, a Madison Avenue ad man of no known core convictions who works on the Nixon campaign in the TV series, "Mad Men." Mr. Romney’s effort to channel J.F.K. last week, in which he mentioned the word Mormon exactly once, was hardly a profile in courage.
The fact to remember about Mr. Huckabee’s polling spike is that it occurred just after the G.O.P. YouTube debate on CNN, where Mr. Romney and Rudy Giuliani vied to spray the most spittle at illegal immigrants. Congressman Tom Tancredo of Colorado, the fringe candidate whose most recent ads accuse the invading hordes of "pushing drugs, raping kids, destroying lives," accurately accused his opponents of trying to "out-Tancredo Tancredo."
Next to this mean-spiritedness, Mr. Huckabee’s tone leapt off the screen. Attacked by Mr. Romney for supporting an Arkansas program aiding the children of illegal immigrants, he replied, "In all due respect, we’re a better country than to punish children for what their parents did." It was a winning moment, politically as well as morally. And a no-brainer at that. Given that Mr. Tancredo polls at 4 percent among Iowan Republicans and zero nationally, it’s hard to see why Rudy-Romney thought it was smart to try to out-Tancredo Tancredo.
Mr. Huckabee’s humane stand wasn’t an election-year flip-flop. As governor, he decried a bill denying health services to illegal immigrants as "race-baiting" even though its legislator sponsor was a fellow Baptist preacher. Mr. Huckabee’s record on race in general (and in attracting African-American votes) is dramatically at odds with much of his party. Only last year Republicans brought us both "macaca" and a television ad portraying the black Democratic Senate candidate in Tennessee, Harold Ford Jr., as a potential despoiler of white women.
Unlike Rudy-Romney, Mr. Huckabee showed up for the PBS presidential debate held at the historically black Morgan State University in September. Afterward, he met Cornel West, an Obama supporter who deeply disagrees with Mr. Huckabee about abortion and much else. I asked Dr. West for his take last week. After effusively praising Mr. Huckabee as unique among the G.O.P. contenders, Dr. West said: "I told him, ‘You are for real.’ Black voters in Arkansas aren’t stupid. They know he’s sincere about fighting racism and poverty."
Though Mr. Romney’s hastily scheduled speech last week has been greeted by Washington as an essential antidote to the religious bigotry that’s supposedly doing him in, this entire issue may be a red herring. Mr. Romney’s Mormonism has hardly been a secret until now, and Mr.
Huckabee’s eagerness to milk his status as a certified "Christian leader" has been equally transparent from the campaign’s start. Was there really a rising tide of anti-Mormon sentiment in Iowa over the past month, or is Mr. Romney just playing victim?
The real reason for Mr. Huckabee’s ascendance may be that his message is simply more uplifting — and, in the ethical rather than theological sense, more Christian — than that of rivals whose main calling cards of fear, torture and nativism have become more strident with every debate. The fresh-faced politics of joy may be trumping the five-o’clock-shadow of Nixonian gloom and paranoia favored by the entire G.O.P. field with the sometime exception of John McCain.
On the same day of Mr. Romney’s speech, two new polls found Mr. Huckabee with a substantial lead over him and Mr. Giuliani in South Carolina, a stunning reversal from a month ago. Don’t be surprised if a desperate Mitt, who has "accidentally" referred to Mr. Obama as "Osama," does desperate things. South Carolina’s 2000 Republican primary was a jamboree of race-baiting that included a whispering campaign branding Senator McCain as the father of an illegitimate black child. The local political operative who worked for George W. Bush in that race and engineered the infamous Bush visit to Bob Jones University is now in Mr. Romney’s employ.
Mr. Huckabee may well be doomed in the long term. He has little money or organization. He’s so ignorant of foreign affairs that he hadn’t heard of the National Intelligence Estimate on Iran a day after its release. His sometimes wacky economic populism riles his party’s most important constituency, Wall Street. And who knows how many other Arkansas scandals will be disinterred along with the paroled serial rapist who popped out last week? That Mr. Huckabee has gotten as far as he has shows just how in sync his benign style is with the cultural moment.
To understand why he can’t be completely dismissed, consider last month’s Wall Street Journal-NBC News poll. Peter Hart, the Democratic half of the bipartisan team that conducts the survey, told me in an interview last week that an overwhelming majority of voters of both parties not only want change but also regard "reducing the partisan fighting in government" as high on their agenda. To his surprise, Mr. Hart found that there’s even a majority (59 percent) seeking a president who would help America in "regaining respect around the world."
This climate, of course, favors the Democrats, especially if the Republicans choose a candidate who brands them as the party of rage and fear — and even more especially if their Tancredo-ism drives a large Hispanic turnout for the national Democratic ticket in Florida, Nevada,
Colorado, New Mexico and Arizona. But a Democratic victory is not guaranteed. The huge spread in the Journal-NBC poll between an unnamed Democrat and Republican in the presidential race — 50 to 35 percent — shrank to a 1 percent lead when Mrs. Clinton was pitted against Mr. Giuliani.
Mr. Obama’s campaign, though hardly the long shot of Mr. Huckabee’s, could also fall short. But the Clinton camp’s panic over his rise in the Iowa polls shows that he’s on the right tactical track.
The more polarizing and negative a candidate turns in style, the more that candidate risks playing Nixon to Mr. Obama’s Kennedy. That Mrs. Clinton’s minions would attack Mr. Obama for unseemly ambition because he wrote a kindergarten report called "I Want to Become President" — and then snidely belittle the press for falling for "a joke" once this gambit backfired — is Rudy-Romneyesque in its vituperative folly.
Experience, like nastiness, may also prove a dead end in the year ahead. In 1960, the experience card was played by all comers against the young upstart senator from Massachusetts. In Iowa, L.B.J. went so far as to tell voters that they should vote for "a man with a little gray in his hair." But experience, Kennedy would memorably counter, "is like taillights on a boat which illuminate where we have been when we should be focusing on where we should be going."
The most experienced candidate in 2008 is not Mrs. Clinton, Mr. Giuliani or Mr. Romney in any case. It’s Mr. McCain, Joe Biden, Chris Dodd and Bill Richardson who have the longest résumés. Mr. Huckabee and Mr. Obama, meanwhile, are both betting that this is another crossroads, like 1960, when Americans are hungry for a leader who will refocus the nation on the path ahead.
www.ruffcommunications.com
By FRANK RICH
Published: December 9, 2007
COULD 2008 actually end up being a showdown between the author of "The Audacity of Hope" and the new Man from Hope, Ark.?
It sounds preposterous, but Washington’s shock over Mike Huckabee’s sudden rise in the polls — he "came from nowhere," Robert Novak huffed last week — makes you wonder. Having failed to anticipate so much else, including the Barack Obama polling surge of days earlier, the press pack has proved an unreliable guide to election 2008. What the Beltway calls unthinkable today keeps turning out to be front-page news tomorrow.
The prevailing Huckabee narrative maintains that he’s benefiting strictly from the loyalty of the religious right. Evangelical Christians are belatedly rallying around one of their own, a Baptist preacher, rather than settling for a Mormon who until recently supported abortion rights or a thrice-married New Yorker who still does. But that doesn’t explain Mr. Huckabee’s abrupt ascent to first place in some polling nationwide, where Christian conservatives account for a far smaller slice of the Republican pie than in Iowa. Indeed, this theory doesn’t entirely explain Mr.
Huckabee’s steep rise in Iowa, where Mitt Romney has outspent him 20 to 1, a financial advantage that Mr. Romney leveraged to crush him in the state’s straw poll just four months ago.
What really may be going on here is a mirror image of the phenomenon that has upended Hillary Clinton’s "inevitability" among Democrats. Like Senator Obama, Mr. Huckabee is the youngest in his party’s field. (At 52, he’s also younger than every Democratic contender except Mr. Obama, who is 46.) Both men have a history of speaking across party and racial lines. Both men possess that rarest of commodities in American public life: wit. Most important, both men aspire (not always successfully) to avoid the hyper-partisanship of the Clinton-Bush era.
Though their views on issues are often antithetical, Mr. Huckabee and Mr. Obama may be united in catching the wave of an emerging zeitgeist that is larger than either party’s ideology.
An exhausted and disillusioned public may be ready for a replay of the New Frontier pitch of 1960. That pitch won’t come from Mr. Romney, a glib salesman who seems a dead ringer for Don Draper, a Madison Avenue ad man of no known core convictions who works on the Nixon campaign in the TV series, "Mad Men." Mr. Romney’s effort to channel J.F.K. last week, in which he mentioned the word Mormon exactly once, was hardly a profile in courage.
The fact to remember about Mr. Huckabee’s polling spike is that it occurred just after the G.O.P. YouTube debate on CNN, where Mr. Romney and Rudy Giuliani vied to spray the most spittle at illegal immigrants. Congressman Tom Tancredo of Colorado, the fringe candidate whose most recent ads accuse the invading hordes of "pushing drugs, raping kids, destroying lives," accurately accused his opponents of trying to "out-Tancredo Tancredo."
Next to this mean-spiritedness, Mr. Huckabee’s tone leapt off the screen. Attacked by Mr. Romney for supporting an Arkansas program aiding the children of illegal immigrants, he replied, "In all due respect, we’re a better country than to punish children for what their parents did." It was a winning moment, politically as well as morally. And a no-brainer at that. Given that Mr. Tancredo polls at 4 percent among Iowan Republicans and zero nationally, it’s hard to see why Rudy-Romney thought it was smart to try to out-Tancredo Tancredo.
Mr. Huckabee’s humane stand wasn’t an election-year flip-flop. As governor, he decried a bill denying health services to illegal immigrants as "race-baiting" even though its legislator sponsor was a fellow Baptist preacher. Mr. Huckabee’s record on race in general (and in attracting African-American votes) is dramatically at odds with much of his party. Only last year Republicans brought us both "macaca" and a television ad portraying the black Democratic Senate candidate in Tennessee, Harold Ford Jr., as a potential despoiler of white women.
Unlike Rudy-Romney, Mr. Huckabee showed up for the PBS presidential debate held at the historically black Morgan State University in September. Afterward, he met Cornel West, an Obama supporter who deeply disagrees with Mr. Huckabee about abortion and much else. I asked Dr. West for his take last week. After effusively praising Mr. Huckabee as unique among the G.O.P. contenders, Dr. West said: "I told him, ‘You are for real.’ Black voters in Arkansas aren’t stupid. They know he’s sincere about fighting racism and poverty."
Though Mr. Romney’s hastily scheduled speech last week has been greeted by Washington as an essential antidote to the religious bigotry that’s supposedly doing him in, this entire issue may be a red herring. Mr. Romney’s Mormonism has hardly been a secret until now, and Mr.
Huckabee’s eagerness to milk his status as a certified "Christian leader" has been equally transparent from the campaign’s start. Was there really a rising tide of anti-Mormon sentiment in Iowa over the past month, or is Mr. Romney just playing victim?
The real reason for Mr. Huckabee’s ascendance may be that his message is simply more uplifting — and, in the ethical rather than theological sense, more Christian — than that of rivals whose main calling cards of fear, torture and nativism have become more strident with every debate. The fresh-faced politics of joy may be trumping the five-o’clock-shadow of Nixonian gloom and paranoia favored by the entire G.O.P. field with the sometime exception of John McCain.
On the same day of Mr. Romney’s speech, two new polls found Mr. Huckabee with a substantial lead over him and Mr. Giuliani in South Carolina, a stunning reversal from a month ago. Don’t be surprised if a desperate Mitt, who has "accidentally" referred to Mr. Obama as "Osama," does desperate things. South Carolina’s 2000 Republican primary was a jamboree of race-baiting that included a whispering campaign branding Senator McCain as the father of an illegitimate black child. The local political operative who worked for George W. Bush in that race and engineered the infamous Bush visit to Bob Jones University is now in Mr. Romney’s employ.
Mr. Huckabee may well be doomed in the long term. He has little money or organization. He’s so ignorant of foreign affairs that he hadn’t heard of the National Intelligence Estimate on Iran a day after its release. His sometimes wacky economic populism riles his party’s most important constituency, Wall Street. And who knows how many other Arkansas scandals will be disinterred along with the paroled serial rapist who popped out last week? That Mr. Huckabee has gotten as far as he has shows just how in sync his benign style is with the cultural moment.
To understand why he can’t be completely dismissed, consider last month’s Wall Street Journal-NBC News poll. Peter Hart, the Democratic half of the bipartisan team that conducts the survey, told me in an interview last week that an overwhelming majority of voters of both parties not only want change but also regard "reducing the partisan fighting in government" as high on their agenda. To his surprise, Mr. Hart found that there’s even a majority (59 percent) seeking a president who would help America in "regaining respect around the world."
This climate, of course, favors the Democrats, especially if the Republicans choose a candidate who brands them as the party of rage and fear — and even more especially if their Tancredo-ism drives a large Hispanic turnout for the national Democratic ticket in Florida, Nevada,
Colorado, New Mexico and Arizona. But a Democratic victory is not guaranteed. The huge spread in the Journal-NBC poll between an unnamed Democrat and Republican in the presidential race — 50 to 35 percent — shrank to a 1 percent lead when Mrs. Clinton was pitted against Mr. Giuliani.
Mr. Obama’s campaign, though hardly the long shot of Mr. Huckabee’s, could also fall short. But the Clinton camp’s panic over his rise in the Iowa polls shows that he’s on the right tactical track.
The more polarizing and negative a candidate turns in style, the more that candidate risks playing Nixon to Mr. Obama’s Kennedy. That Mrs. Clinton’s minions would attack Mr. Obama for unseemly ambition because he wrote a kindergarten report called "I Want to Become President" — and then snidely belittle the press for falling for "a joke" once this gambit backfired — is Rudy-Romneyesque in its vituperative folly.
Experience, like nastiness, may also prove a dead end in the year ahead. In 1960, the experience card was played by all comers against the young upstart senator from Massachusetts. In Iowa, L.B.J. went so far as to tell voters that they should vote for "a man with a little gray in his hair." But experience, Kennedy would memorably counter, "is like taillights on a boat which illuminate where we have been when we should be focusing on where we should be going."
The most experienced candidate in 2008 is not Mrs. Clinton, Mr. Giuliani or Mr. Romney in any case. It’s Mr. McCain, Joe Biden, Chris Dodd and Bill Richardson who have the longest résumés. Mr. Huckabee and Mr. Obama, meanwhile, are both betting that this is another crossroads, like 1960, when Americans are hungry for a leader who will refocus the nation on the path ahead.
www.ruffcommunications.com
Saturday, December 8, 2007
Front-runners are no shows at GOP debate
Front-runners are no shows at GOP debate
By Alex Wong
Republican presidential hopeful former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee speaks as he stands next to an empty podium which was prepared for former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani during the debate Thursday night in Baltimore.
BALTIMORE (AP) — Republican presidential candidates discussed the importance of reaching out to people of color during a minority issues debate Thursday night and criticized the leading four GOP contenders for skipping it.
"I think this is a disgrace that they are not here," said Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback. "I think it's a disgrace to our country. I think it's bad for our party, and I don't think it's good for our future."
Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee said he was "embarrassed for our party, and I'm embarrassed for those who didn't come."
The four no-shows — former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, former Sen. Fred Thompson, Arizona Sen. John McCain and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney — cited scheduling conflicts in saying they could not attend the debate at historically black Morgan State University.
"Fortunately, there are those in the Republican Party who do understand the importance of reaching out to people of color," said talk show host Tavis Smiley, the debate moderator, thanking the six other candidates for participating.
Besides Brownback and Huckabee, the other candidates who participated in the debate were: Reps. Duncan Hunter of California, Ron Paul of Texas and Tom Tancredo of Colorado, and conservative activist Alan L. Keyes.
The forum, which had black and Hispanic journalists questioning the candidates, was broadcast live on PBS.
The candidates answered questions ranging from what they would do to help minorities, their views on illegal immigration, the war in Iraq, minority unemployment rates and their position on capital punishment.
Huckabee said he would want his legacy in helping minorities to be more equal treatment for them in the criminal justice system. Brownback said he would continue to push for the National Museum of African-American History and Culture in Washington. Keyes spoke of bringing more religious values into schools.
Paul received loud applause when he told the audience that minorities are unfairly punished in the criminal justice system. He also called for ending the war on drugs. "It isn't working," Paul said.
Among the Republicans who have criticized the leading contenders for skipping the forum are former House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia, and former Lt. Gov. Michael Steele, the first black official elected statewide in Maryland.
"I'm puzzled by their decision. I can't speak for them. I think it's a mistake," Gingrich, who is considering joining the race for the GOP nomination, said this week.
Smiley also moderated a debate in June among the Democratic presidential candidates at
Howard University in Washington, another historically black school.
Earlier this month, seven of eight Democratic candidates participated in a debate aired by Univision, the Spanish-language TV network. A Univision-sponsored GOP debate was canceled after only McCain agreed to participate.
www.ruffcommunications.com
By Alex Wong
Republican presidential hopeful former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee speaks as he stands next to an empty podium which was prepared for former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani during the debate Thursday night in Baltimore.
BALTIMORE (AP) — Republican presidential candidates discussed the importance of reaching out to people of color during a minority issues debate Thursday night and criticized the leading four GOP contenders for skipping it.
"I think this is a disgrace that they are not here," said Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback. "I think it's a disgrace to our country. I think it's bad for our party, and I don't think it's good for our future."
Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee said he was "embarrassed for our party, and I'm embarrassed for those who didn't come."
The four no-shows — former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, former Sen. Fred Thompson, Arizona Sen. John McCain and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney — cited scheduling conflicts in saying they could not attend the debate at historically black Morgan State University.
"Fortunately, there are those in the Republican Party who do understand the importance of reaching out to people of color," said talk show host Tavis Smiley, the debate moderator, thanking the six other candidates for participating.
Besides Brownback and Huckabee, the other candidates who participated in the debate were: Reps. Duncan Hunter of California, Ron Paul of Texas and Tom Tancredo of Colorado, and conservative activist Alan L. Keyes.
The forum, which had black and Hispanic journalists questioning the candidates, was broadcast live on PBS.
The candidates answered questions ranging from what they would do to help minorities, their views on illegal immigration, the war in Iraq, minority unemployment rates and their position on capital punishment.
Huckabee said he would want his legacy in helping minorities to be more equal treatment for them in the criminal justice system. Brownback said he would continue to push for the National Museum of African-American History and Culture in Washington. Keyes spoke of bringing more religious values into schools.
Paul received loud applause when he told the audience that minorities are unfairly punished in the criminal justice system. He also called for ending the war on drugs. "It isn't working," Paul said.
Among the Republicans who have criticized the leading contenders for skipping the forum are former House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia, and former Lt. Gov. Michael Steele, the first black official elected statewide in Maryland.
"I'm puzzled by their decision. I can't speak for them. I think it's a mistake," Gingrich, who is considering joining the race for the GOP nomination, said this week.
Smiley also moderated a debate in June among the Democratic presidential candidates at
Howard University in Washington, another historically black school.
Earlier this month, seven of eight Democratic candidates participated in a debate aired by Univision, the Spanish-language TV network. A Univision-sponsored GOP debate was canceled after only McCain agreed to participate.
www.ruffcommunications.com
Monday, December 3, 2007
Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
Monday, December 03, 2007
If the current round of Huck-a-mania is nothing more than Mike Huckabee’s fifteen minutes of fame, the former Arkansas Governor is certainly making the most of it. Today, in the first full round of national polling completed since last week’s “debate” among Republican Presidential hopefuls, Huckabee has pulled to within three points of the frontrunning Rudy Giuliani. Heading into the debate, Giuliani led Huckabee by twelve.
Not only that, new polling data released today shows that Huckabee has pulled to within a single percentage point of Hillary Clinton in a general election match-up. Huckabee is also a frontrunner in Iowa and essentially tied for second in New Hampshire. Some pundits believe Huckabee’s numbers will surely go down as fast as they’ve gone up while others are beginning to consider the possibility that the bass-guitar playing Governor may become a serious contender for the Republican nomination.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Giuliani with 20% support nationwide while Huckabee attracts 17%. Fred Thompson is at 14%, John McCain at 13% and Mitt Romney at 11%. Ron Paul attracts 7% of Likely Republican Primary voters nationwide and no other Republican candidate reaches 2% (see recent daily numbers). During the past week, three events—a debate, an endorsement, and Huck-a-mania—have created new challenges and uncertainties for the GOP frontrunners.
Rudy Giuliani is still seen as the most electable Republican. McCain, Romney, and Huckabee are essentially tied for second in this category.
Results for the Presidential Tracking Poll are obtained through nightly telephone interviews and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. Today is the first update for which all of the interviews were conducted following Wednesday’s Republican debate.
In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination. Clinton now attracts 37% of the vote while Barack Obama earns 24%. John Edwards remains in third place among the Democratic hopefuls at 15%, Bill Richardson is the top choice for 6%, and no other Democratic candidate tops 3% (see recent daily numbers).
Seventy-three percent (73%) of Democrats believe that Clinton is at least somewhat likely to win the White House if nominated. That’s down from 81% a month ago. Sixty-six percent (66%) believe Obama is at least somewhat likely to win it all and 58% say the same about Edwards.
New polling on general election match-ups released over the weekend shows Obama tied with McCain, in a toss-up with Giuliani, and leading both Thompson and Romney.
Other polling released yesterday shows that just 23% believe the United States is heading in the right direction. Women are more pessimistic than men.
Also, during the month of November, 37.3% of Americans identified themselves as Democrats while 32.6% considered themselves Republicans. Those figures are virtually unchanged from October, are a bit better for the GOP than November 2006, but represent a significant decline in the number of Republicans since President Bush’s re-election.
See Rasmussen Reports general election match-ups and other key stats for all Republican and Democratic candidates.
The Rasmussen Reports Election 2008 Presidential Tracking Poll is updated daily. Today is the first day of regular weekend updates.
Daily tracking results are from survey interviews conducted over four days ending last night. Each update includes approximately 750 Likely Democratic Primary Voters and 600 Likely Republican Primary Voters. Margin of sampling error for each is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
Rasmussen Reports provides a weekly analysis of both the Republican and Democratic race each Monday.
Each Monday, full week results are released based upon a seven-day rolling average. While the daily tracking result are useful for measuring quick reaction to events in the news, the full week results provide an effective means for evaluating longer-term trends.
Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.
The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
This survey includes approximately 750-800 Likely Democratic Primary Voters and 600-650 Likely Republican Primary Voters. Margin of sampling error for each is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
www.ruffcommunications.com
Monday, December 03, 2007
If the current round of Huck-a-mania is nothing more than Mike Huckabee’s fifteen minutes of fame, the former Arkansas Governor is certainly making the most of it. Today, in the first full round of national polling completed since last week’s “debate” among Republican Presidential hopefuls, Huckabee has pulled to within three points of the frontrunning Rudy Giuliani. Heading into the debate, Giuliani led Huckabee by twelve.
Not only that, new polling data released today shows that Huckabee has pulled to within a single percentage point of Hillary Clinton in a general election match-up. Huckabee is also a frontrunner in Iowa and essentially tied for second in New Hampshire. Some pundits believe Huckabee’s numbers will surely go down as fast as they’ve gone up while others are beginning to consider the possibility that the bass-guitar playing Governor may become a serious contender for the Republican nomination.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Giuliani with 20% support nationwide while Huckabee attracts 17%. Fred Thompson is at 14%, John McCain at 13% and Mitt Romney at 11%. Ron Paul attracts 7% of Likely Republican Primary voters nationwide and no other Republican candidate reaches 2% (see recent daily numbers). During the past week, three events—a debate, an endorsement, and Huck-a-mania—have created new challenges and uncertainties for the GOP frontrunners.
Rudy Giuliani is still seen as the most electable Republican. McCain, Romney, and Huckabee are essentially tied for second in this category.
Results for the Presidential Tracking Poll are obtained through nightly telephone interviews and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. Today is the first update for which all of the interviews were conducted following Wednesday’s Republican debate.
In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination. Clinton now attracts 37% of the vote while Barack Obama earns 24%. John Edwards remains in third place among the Democratic hopefuls at 15%, Bill Richardson is the top choice for 6%, and no other Democratic candidate tops 3% (see recent daily numbers).
Seventy-three percent (73%) of Democrats believe that Clinton is at least somewhat likely to win the White House if nominated. That’s down from 81% a month ago. Sixty-six percent (66%) believe Obama is at least somewhat likely to win it all and 58% say the same about Edwards.
New polling on general election match-ups released over the weekend shows Obama tied with McCain, in a toss-up with Giuliani, and leading both Thompson and Romney.
Other polling released yesterday shows that just 23% believe the United States is heading in the right direction. Women are more pessimistic than men.
Also, during the month of November, 37.3% of Americans identified themselves as Democrats while 32.6% considered themselves Republicans. Those figures are virtually unchanged from October, are a bit better for the GOP than November 2006, but represent a significant decline in the number of Republicans since President Bush’s re-election.
See Rasmussen Reports general election match-ups and other key stats for all Republican and Democratic candidates.
The Rasmussen Reports Election 2008 Presidential Tracking Poll is updated daily. Today is the first day of regular weekend updates.
Daily tracking results are from survey interviews conducted over four days ending last night. Each update includes approximately 750 Likely Democratic Primary Voters and 600 Likely Republican Primary Voters. Margin of sampling error for each is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
Rasmussen Reports provides a weekly analysis of both the Republican and Democratic race each Monday.
Each Monday, full week results are released based upon a seven-day rolling average. While the daily tracking result are useful for measuring quick reaction to events in the news, the full week results provide an effective means for evaluating longer-term trends.
Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.
The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
This survey includes approximately 750-800 Likely Democratic Primary Voters and 600-650 Likely Republican Primary Voters. Margin of sampling error for each is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
www.ruffcommunications.com
Tuesday, November 20, 2007
CBS Poll: Mike Huckabee Surging In Iowa November 13, 2007
CBS Poll: Mike Huckabee Surging In Iowa
Romney Leads, Ex-Arkansas Governor In Second With 21 Percent; Top Three Democrats Deadlocked
NEW YORK, Nov. 13, 2007
Campaign 2008
A glimpse at presidential hopefuls and a fund-raising overview as the campaign gears up.
Section
CBS News Polls
Read the latest polls done by CBS News polling unit.
·
(CBS) Mike Huckabee, is making a big move on Mitt Romney's long-held position as the front-runner among Iowa Republicans, according to a new CBS News/New York Times poll. While Romney still holds the lead at 27 percent in the poll, Huckabee comes in a strong second at 21 percent, with a 5 percent margin of error. The poll also shows that Democrats are headed toward a heated showdown in Iowa, where Hillary Clinton holds a statistically insignificant lead over John Edwards and Barack Obama. Among likely caucus-goers, Clinton came out on top with 25 percent support, but she was trailed closely by Edwards at 23 percent, and Obama at 22 percent. With a margin of error of 4 percentage points, there is no clear leader. Trailing behind was Bill Richardson, at 12 percent, with all other candidates in single digits. The situation in Iowa, where nominating caucuses are scheduled for Jan. 3, is in stark contrast to New Hampshire, where Clinton and Romney continue to hold large leads among those likely to vote in the state's first-in-the-nation primary, which could come only days after Iowa's contests. But in both states, large chunks of voters have yet to make up their minds, meaning the results of the contests that will kick off the 2008 nominating season are still difficult to predict.
While the Democratic contest in Iowa has been a three-way battle for some time, most polls have shown Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, with a strong lead in the Hawkeye State, dominating the GOP field. Recent surveys have shown Huckabee picking up steam, but the CBS News/New York Times represents his best showing to date. In the poll, Rudy Giuliani was in third in Iowa at 15 percent. All other candidates were in single digits, including Fred Thompson, who had 9 percent support among likely caucus-goers. While Huckabee's strong showing would seem to be a surprise, CBSNews.com senior political editor Vaughn Ververs said it's the attention he's paid to the state coupled with his conservative message that is paying dividends. "A poll, of course, is simply a snapshot in time and we'll need to see more evidence of a Huckabee surge before buying into it totally," "But it's not surprising to see him gaining. Iowa is a state tailor made for Huckabee's candidacy and message." (Read more in CBSNews.com's campaign blog, Horserace) "Huckabee is a very good candidate in the sense he makes a very good appearance," CBS News chief Washington correspondent Bob Schieffer said. "I think that Huckabee actually has a chance to win out there… If he does, that puts a whole new spin on the race." "I'm still not sure he would be the favorite to get the nomination, but he's certainly going to be a factor as we move on down the road," Schieffer added. While Romney still has the lead in Iowa, his support base is softer than that of Huckabee, a former Arkansas governor whose campaign has gained momentum in recent weeks. Half of Huckabee supporters said they had made up their mind, compared to two-thirds of Romney supporters who said they could change their mind before caucus night. Overall, 57 percent of GOP caucus-goers said they haven't settled on one candidate. Huckabee could run into trouble if immigration is as important an issue as the poll indicates.
When asked what issue candidates should discuss, illegal immigration topped the list at 20 percent, and 44 percent of caucus-goers said illegal immigrants should lose their jobs and leave the country. Huckabee has been criticized for supporting pre-natal care for immigrants and educational opportunities for the children of immigrants, and only 13 percent said Huckabee agreed with them on this issue, compared to 26 percent for Romney. However, immigration may not be a deal-breaker: 75 percent said they could support a candidate who is less conservative than they are.
This could offer hope to Huckabee, but not to Giuliani. While 38 percent said he was the most electable of the GOP candidates, likely caucus-goers were split nearly evenly on whether they could support a candidate who disagreed with them on social issues like abortion and gay marriage - Giuliani favors abortion rights and supports extending gay rights, though he does not support same-sex marriage.
Meanwhile, on the Democratic side in Iowa, the contest appears also appears to going right down to the wire. None of the top three has firmed up their support yet - about half of those backing each candidate said they could change their minds before caucus night. Despite that fluidity, there are some clear patterns that show how important it will be for each candidate to turn out certain groups of voters: Women have a strong preference for Clinton, while those under the age of 45 give Obama a double-digit lead.
Obama and Clinton are nearly tied for support among first-time caucus-goers, but previous attendees give Edwards a narrow edge over Clinton. The findings indicate that if older and established voters dominate turnout, the caucuses could be a two-way contest between Clinton and Edwards. If the Obama campaign succeeds in its bid to bring young voters and first-time caucus-goers out on Jan. 3, however, it could leave Iowa with a win and a crucial momentum boost headed into later contests.
Doing so will be a challenge: Only a third of possible first-time attendees say they will "definitely" attend the caucuses, compared with six in 10 of previous attendees. One factor in Obama's favor is that nearly two-thirds of the state's independent voters who plan on voting on Jan. 3 say they'll attend the Democratic caucus. Obama attracts the support of 37 percent of those voters, compared to only 17 percent for Edwards and 15 percent for Clinton. The priorities of Iowans will also be crucial. Clinton is seen as the most electable in November 2008 by a wide margin.
However, Obama is clearly seen as the most likely to bring about change in Washington and Edwards holds a strong edge on the question of who understands the problems of Iowans. Edwards and Obama may also want to spend time making sure supporters of second-tier candidates see them favorably: Among those favoring other candidates besides them and Clinton, Edwards was the second choice of 30 percent, while Obama was close behind at 27 percent. A supporter of any candidate getting less than 15 percent support on the first count at a caucus is allowed to switch to another candidate or enter an "uncommitted" group.
As contentious as Iowa is, the next state on the campaign calendar, New Hampshire, is far less competitive. Among likely Democratic primary voters, Clinton has 37 percent support, putting her 15 points ahead of Obama. Among Republicans, Romney continues to dominate. He was backed by 34 percent in the poll, while John McCain and Giuliani both trailed at 16 percent.
All other candidates were in single digits. Clinton's support in the Granite State is solid. Though 52 percent of voters say they could change their mind, 62 percent of Clinton supporters "strongly favor" the New York senator and former first lady. As in Iowa, her experience is the top reason people are supporting her. Many New Hampshire Republicans also have yet to make up their minds, even more so than Democrats.
Among likely GOP primary voters, 66 percent said they hadn't made up their minds. Romney, unlike Clinton, has yet to solidify his support - only 31 percent of Romney backers said they had made up their mind. More than half of his supporters have reservations about him or are behind him because they dislike other candidates in the race. And the poll indicates Romney's religion could be a problem: more than one-in-four voters said they know someone who would not vote for a Mormon candidate.
CBS News and The New York Times conducted telephone interviews with 1273 likely caucus-goers in Iowa November 2-11, 2007 and 719 likely primary voters in New Hampshire November 9-12, 2007. The error due to sampling could be 4 points for Iowa Democratic caucus-goers, 5 points for Iowa Republican caucus-goers, and likely New Hampshire Democratic voters, and 6 points for likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire.
In New Hampshire, sampling was done using standard RDD probability selection processes. In Iowa, the sample was drawn from three sources: the state of Iowa’s registered voter list (matched to phone numbers where possible), an RDD phone sample with numbers that matched numbers on the registered voter list eliminated (in order to sample phone numbers unavailable on the state list), and a small cell phone sample. Results were weighted by probabilities of selection and by demographic characteristics to reflect the New Hampshire adult population and the Iowa registered voter list.
To create the probable electorates for each state, registered voters were also weighted by their intention of voting, their attention to the campaign, and factors related to their past voting behavior. Likely caucus-goers in Iowa represent 17% of the registered voter population; likely voters in New Hampshire represent 59% of the state’s registered voter population.
www.ruffcommunications.com
Romney Leads, Ex-Arkansas Governor In Second With 21 Percent; Top Three Democrats Deadlocked
NEW YORK, Nov. 13, 2007
Campaign 2008
A glimpse at presidential hopefuls and a fund-raising overview as the campaign gears up.
Section
CBS News Polls
Read the latest polls done by CBS News polling unit.
·
(CBS) Mike Huckabee, is making a big move on Mitt Romney's long-held position as the front-runner among Iowa Republicans, according to a new CBS News/New York Times poll. While Romney still holds the lead at 27 percent in the poll, Huckabee comes in a strong second at 21 percent, with a 5 percent margin of error. The poll also shows that Democrats are headed toward a heated showdown in Iowa, where Hillary Clinton holds a statistically insignificant lead over John Edwards and Barack Obama. Among likely caucus-goers, Clinton came out on top with 25 percent support, but she was trailed closely by Edwards at 23 percent, and Obama at 22 percent. With a margin of error of 4 percentage points, there is no clear leader. Trailing behind was Bill Richardson, at 12 percent, with all other candidates in single digits. The situation in Iowa, where nominating caucuses are scheduled for Jan. 3, is in stark contrast to New Hampshire, where Clinton and Romney continue to hold large leads among those likely to vote in the state's first-in-the-nation primary, which could come only days after Iowa's contests. But in both states, large chunks of voters have yet to make up their minds, meaning the results of the contests that will kick off the 2008 nominating season are still difficult to predict.
While the Democratic contest in Iowa has been a three-way battle for some time, most polls have shown Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, with a strong lead in the Hawkeye State, dominating the GOP field. Recent surveys have shown Huckabee picking up steam, but the CBS News/New York Times represents his best showing to date. In the poll, Rudy Giuliani was in third in Iowa at 15 percent. All other candidates were in single digits, including Fred Thompson, who had 9 percent support among likely caucus-goers. While Huckabee's strong showing would seem to be a surprise, CBSNews.com senior political editor Vaughn Ververs said it's the attention he's paid to the state coupled with his conservative message that is paying dividends. "A poll, of course, is simply a snapshot in time and we'll need to see more evidence of a Huckabee surge before buying into it totally," "But it's not surprising to see him gaining. Iowa is a state tailor made for Huckabee's candidacy and message." (Read more in CBSNews.com's campaign blog, Horserace) "Huckabee is a very good candidate in the sense he makes a very good appearance," CBS News chief Washington correspondent Bob Schieffer said. "I think that Huckabee actually has a chance to win out there… If he does, that puts a whole new spin on the race." "I'm still not sure he would be the favorite to get the nomination, but he's certainly going to be a factor as we move on down the road," Schieffer added. While Romney still has the lead in Iowa, his support base is softer than that of Huckabee, a former Arkansas governor whose campaign has gained momentum in recent weeks. Half of Huckabee supporters said they had made up their mind, compared to two-thirds of Romney supporters who said they could change their mind before caucus night. Overall, 57 percent of GOP caucus-goers said they haven't settled on one candidate. Huckabee could run into trouble if immigration is as important an issue as the poll indicates.
When asked what issue candidates should discuss, illegal immigration topped the list at 20 percent, and 44 percent of caucus-goers said illegal immigrants should lose their jobs and leave the country. Huckabee has been criticized for supporting pre-natal care for immigrants and educational opportunities for the children of immigrants, and only 13 percent said Huckabee agreed with them on this issue, compared to 26 percent for Romney. However, immigration may not be a deal-breaker: 75 percent said they could support a candidate who is less conservative than they are.
This could offer hope to Huckabee, but not to Giuliani. While 38 percent said he was the most electable of the GOP candidates, likely caucus-goers were split nearly evenly on whether they could support a candidate who disagreed with them on social issues like abortion and gay marriage - Giuliani favors abortion rights and supports extending gay rights, though he does not support same-sex marriage.
Meanwhile, on the Democratic side in Iowa, the contest appears also appears to going right down to the wire. None of the top three has firmed up their support yet - about half of those backing each candidate said they could change their minds before caucus night. Despite that fluidity, there are some clear patterns that show how important it will be for each candidate to turn out certain groups of voters: Women have a strong preference for Clinton, while those under the age of 45 give Obama a double-digit lead.
Obama and Clinton are nearly tied for support among first-time caucus-goers, but previous attendees give Edwards a narrow edge over Clinton. The findings indicate that if older and established voters dominate turnout, the caucuses could be a two-way contest between Clinton and Edwards. If the Obama campaign succeeds in its bid to bring young voters and first-time caucus-goers out on Jan. 3, however, it could leave Iowa with a win and a crucial momentum boost headed into later contests.
Doing so will be a challenge: Only a third of possible first-time attendees say they will "definitely" attend the caucuses, compared with six in 10 of previous attendees. One factor in Obama's favor is that nearly two-thirds of the state's independent voters who plan on voting on Jan. 3 say they'll attend the Democratic caucus. Obama attracts the support of 37 percent of those voters, compared to only 17 percent for Edwards and 15 percent for Clinton. The priorities of Iowans will also be crucial. Clinton is seen as the most electable in November 2008 by a wide margin.
However, Obama is clearly seen as the most likely to bring about change in Washington and Edwards holds a strong edge on the question of who understands the problems of Iowans. Edwards and Obama may also want to spend time making sure supporters of second-tier candidates see them favorably: Among those favoring other candidates besides them and Clinton, Edwards was the second choice of 30 percent, while Obama was close behind at 27 percent. A supporter of any candidate getting less than 15 percent support on the first count at a caucus is allowed to switch to another candidate or enter an "uncommitted" group.
As contentious as Iowa is, the next state on the campaign calendar, New Hampshire, is far less competitive. Among likely Democratic primary voters, Clinton has 37 percent support, putting her 15 points ahead of Obama. Among Republicans, Romney continues to dominate. He was backed by 34 percent in the poll, while John McCain and Giuliani both trailed at 16 percent.
All other candidates were in single digits. Clinton's support in the Granite State is solid. Though 52 percent of voters say they could change their mind, 62 percent of Clinton supporters "strongly favor" the New York senator and former first lady. As in Iowa, her experience is the top reason people are supporting her. Many New Hampshire Republicans also have yet to make up their minds, even more so than Democrats.
Among likely GOP primary voters, 66 percent said they hadn't made up their minds. Romney, unlike Clinton, has yet to solidify his support - only 31 percent of Romney backers said they had made up their mind. More than half of his supporters have reservations about him or are behind him because they dislike other candidates in the race. And the poll indicates Romney's religion could be a problem: more than one-in-four voters said they know someone who would not vote for a Mormon candidate.
CBS News and The New York Times conducted telephone interviews with 1273 likely caucus-goers in Iowa November 2-11, 2007 and 719 likely primary voters in New Hampshire November 9-12, 2007. The error due to sampling could be 4 points for Iowa Democratic caucus-goers, 5 points for Iowa Republican caucus-goers, and likely New Hampshire Democratic voters, and 6 points for likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire.
In New Hampshire, sampling was done using standard RDD probability selection processes. In Iowa, the sample was drawn from three sources: the state of Iowa’s registered voter list (matched to phone numbers where possible), an RDD phone sample with numbers that matched numbers on the registered voter list eliminated (in order to sample phone numbers unavailable on the state list), and a small cell phone sample. Results were weighted by probabilities of selection and by demographic characteristics to reflect the New Hampshire adult population and the Iowa registered voter list.
To create the probable electorates for each state, registered voters were also weighted by their intention of voting, their attention to the campaign, and factors related to their past voting behavior. Likely caucus-goers in Iowa represent 17% of the registered voter population; likely voters in New Hampshire represent 59% of the state’s registered voter population.
www.ruffcommunications.com
The Real Deal - Real Clear Politics November 14, 2007
November 14, 2007
The Real Deal
It's official: Mike Huckabee is really, actually, shockingly on the move, and in a big way. The latest polls out of Iowa, dating back to the middle of October, show what is now more than a few good days for the former Arkansas Governor: They show him clearly, solidly in second place in the GOP race. That's a huge accomplishment for a guy with no money.
In a mid-October University of Iowa [PDF] poll, Huckabee was tied for second place. In subsequent polls from American Research Group, Zogby, CBS/New York Times [PDF] and Strategic Vision, he's in second place by himself, by as many as seven points, in the Strategic Vision poll, and six points, in the CBS/NYT poll. He trails only Mitt Romney, though by 12.8 points in the latest RCP Iowa Average.
The Huckmentum is unbelievable, considering that Huckabee has fewer staffers total than Romney has in Iowa alone. But with Sam Brownback out of the race, and despite big evangelical endorsements for Romney, Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson and John McCain, could it be that rank-and-file Christian conservatives are making Huckabee the candidate of their choice?
If so, look for Huckabee to sustain his momentum. The Iowa Christian vote is estimated by some to be as high as 40% of the GOP base. If Huckabee can form a coalition of even half those voters, he will vault himself into serious contention. For the record, Politics Nation said Huckabee would do well as far back as December of 2005, though we will admit that we were selling more stock than we were buying in recent months.
Posted by Reid Wilson
www.ruffcommunications.com
The Real Deal
It's official: Mike Huckabee is really, actually, shockingly on the move, and in a big way. The latest polls out of Iowa, dating back to the middle of October, show what is now more than a few good days for the former Arkansas Governor: They show him clearly, solidly in second place in the GOP race. That's a huge accomplishment for a guy with no money.
In a mid-October University of Iowa [PDF] poll, Huckabee was tied for second place. In subsequent polls from American Research Group, Zogby, CBS/New York Times [PDF] and Strategic Vision, he's in second place by himself, by as many as seven points, in the Strategic Vision poll, and six points, in the CBS/NYT poll. He trails only Mitt Romney, though by 12.8 points in the latest RCP Iowa Average.
The Huckmentum is unbelievable, considering that Huckabee has fewer staffers total than Romney has in Iowa alone. But with Sam Brownback out of the race, and despite big evangelical endorsements for Romney, Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson and John McCain, could it be that rank-and-file Christian conservatives are making Huckabee the candidate of their choice?
If so, look for Huckabee to sustain his momentum. The Iowa Christian vote is estimated by some to be as high as 40% of the GOP base. If Huckabee can form a coalition of even half those voters, he will vault himself into serious contention. For the record, Politics Nation said Huckabee would do well as far back as December of 2005, though we will admit that we were selling more stock than we were buying in recent months.
Posted by Reid Wilson
www.ruffcommunications.com
Friday, November 9, 2007
America's Mayor is on a Roll November 9, 2007
November 09, 2007
America's Mayor Is on a Roll
By Lawrence Kudlow
While Hillary Clinton is slipping in the polls, Rudy Giuliani is on a roll. This is a big swing of momentum. Even the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC poll puts the two frontrunners in a dead heat.
Sen. Clinton was hurt badly by her flip-flopping performance in last month's Democratic debate. America's mayor, on the other hand, just got a hugely important endorsement from the Rev. Pat Robertson. The message to social conservatives is clear: It's now OK to vote for Rudy.
Why Rudy? Robertson named out-of-control federal spending, appointing conservative judges, reducing crime and, perhaps most importantly, "the overriding issue (of) defending against (the) bloodlust of Islamic terrorists," as issues that strongly favor Giuliani. On the other hand, he called abortion -- something of a sticky subject for Giuliani -- "only one issue" of importance.
The endorsement also suggests that evangelicals are divided on 2008. Indeed, there's no monolithic movement in favor of any major candidate. This is critical. It means no third-party candidacy from the Christian right.
Recall that Bill and Hillary Clinton benefited enormously in 1992 when Ross Perot swiped 19 percent of the vote (most of those Republican) in the race against Papa Bush. And when Perot ran again in '96, he undoubtedly drained votes from Sen. Bob Dole. (I note that Bill Clinton didn't garner 50 percent of the vote in either of these elections.) But Robertson has very likely removed this dynamic. No third-party gifts for Hillary in 2008.
Robertson is a big score for Giuliani, right when he's gaining ground on Mitt Romney in New Hampshire. That said, Romney is still up 15 points in New Hampshire, according to Scott Rasmussen's poll, and 9.5 points, as per the RealClearPolitics average. So you know what? Good for Romney.
To be very clear, I am not picking sides here. I do think Romney is running a strong campaign. And he's gaining strength as a candidate. I also think John McCain is finding his sea legs on the campaign trail. Romney, McCain and Giuliani are all strengthening what they say and how they say it. But at this writing, Giuliani appears to be at the top of his game.
When I interviewed him last week on CNBC, it marked the fourth time we had sat down together this year. But something was different. Giuliani was more in command of a wide breadth of issues, while there was a lot less talk about his considerable accomplishments as mayor of New York City.
For example, when I asked him what a President Giuliani would do to prop up the sagging dollar, he immediately reeled off a series of proposals: Cut spending, and stop the earmarks. Deregulate wherever possible. Curb the stranglehold of Sarbanes-Oxley on the securities market. Make sure there's no new Sarbox for home-loan mortgage credits. Keep the trial lawyers from launching class-action lawsuits against mortgage-security investors, which would only cripple housing credit in the future. Restore confidence in the economy by stopping Charlie Rangel's mother-of-all-tax-hikes proposal.
That was some list. He also came out for cutting the corporate income tax -- both as a pro-growth job creator and as a way to boost the sagging fortunes of the dollar. He's right on both counts. In particular, he was emphatic about reducing the corporate tax so we can better compete with Europe (read the euro).
Grow the economy. Create more jobs. Strengthen worker wages. Giuliani was on fire. In fact, at the end of the interview, as we were walking off the set, he confided in me that he would suggest an immediate corporate-tax-cut proposal to President Bush. Giuliani wants results. And he knows he can win.
"I can beat her," Giuliani said. "I can run in key states other Republicans can't run in. That's why Democrats are attacking me."
I still believe that it's a strong Republican field. And I still believe Hillary Clinton's message of heavy spending, middle-class entitlements and higher taxes is a Mondale-era loser. But there's no doubt about it, America's mayor is on a roll.
Lawrence Kudlow is a former Reagan economic advisor, a syndicated columnist, and the host of CNBC's Kudlow & Company. Visit his blog, Kudlow's Money Politics.
www.ruffcommunications.com
America's Mayor Is on a Roll
By Lawrence Kudlow
While Hillary Clinton is slipping in the polls, Rudy Giuliani is on a roll. This is a big swing of momentum. Even the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC poll puts the two frontrunners in a dead heat.
Sen. Clinton was hurt badly by her flip-flopping performance in last month's Democratic debate. America's mayor, on the other hand, just got a hugely important endorsement from the Rev. Pat Robertson. The message to social conservatives is clear: It's now OK to vote for Rudy.
Why Rudy? Robertson named out-of-control federal spending, appointing conservative judges, reducing crime and, perhaps most importantly, "the overriding issue (of) defending against (the) bloodlust of Islamic terrorists," as issues that strongly favor Giuliani. On the other hand, he called abortion -- something of a sticky subject for Giuliani -- "only one issue" of importance.
The endorsement also suggests that evangelicals are divided on 2008. Indeed, there's no monolithic movement in favor of any major candidate. This is critical. It means no third-party candidacy from the Christian right.
Recall that Bill and Hillary Clinton benefited enormously in 1992 when Ross Perot swiped 19 percent of the vote (most of those Republican) in the race against Papa Bush. And when Perot ran again in '96, he undoubtedly drained votes from Sen. Bob Dole. (I note that Bill Clinton didn't garner 50 percent of the vote in either of these elections.) But Robertson has very likely removed this dynamic. No third-party gifts for Hillary in 2008.
Robertson is a big score for Giuliani, right when he's gaining ground on Mitt Romney in New Hampshire. That said, Romney is still up 15 points in New Hampshire, according to Scott Rasmussen's poll, and 9.5 points, as per the RealClearPolitics average. So you know what? Good for Romney.
To be very clear, I am not picking sides here. I do think Romney is running a strong campaign. And he's gaining strength as a candidate. I also think John McCain is finding his sea legs on the campaign trail. Romney, McCain and Giuliani are all strengthening what they say and how they say it. But at this writing, Giuliani appears to be at the top of his game.
When I interviewed him last week on CNBC, it marked the fourth time we had sat down together this year. But something was different. Giuliani was more in command of a wide breadth of issues, while there was a lot less talk about his considerable accomplishments as mayor of New York City.
For example, when I asked him what a President Giuliani would do to prop up the sagging dollar, he immediately reeled off a series of proposals: Cut spending, and stop the earmarks. Deregulate wherever possible. Curb the stranglehold of Sarbanes-Oxley on the securities market. Make sure there's no new Sarbox for home-loan mortgage credits. Keep the trial lawyers from launching class-action lawsuits against mortgage-security investors, which would only cripple housing credit in the future. Restore confidence in the economy by stopping Charlie Rangel's mother-of-all-tax-hikes proposal.
That was some list. He also came out for cutting the corporate income tax -- both as a pro-growth job creator and as a way to boost the sagging fortunes of the dollar. He's right on both counts. In particular, he was emphatic about reducing the corporate tax so we can better compete with Europe (read the euro).
Grow the economy. Create more jobs. Strengthen worker wages. Giuliani was on fire. In fact, at the end of the interview, as we were walking off the set, he confided in me that he would suggest an immediate corporate-tax-cut proposal to President Bush. Giuliani wants results. And he knows he can win.
"I can beat her," Giuliani said. "I can run in key states other Republicans can't run in. That's why Democrats are attacking me."
I still believe that it's a strong Republican field. And I still believe Hillary Clinton's message of heavy spending, middle-class entitlements and higher taxes is a Mondale-era loser. But there's no doubt about it, America's mayor is on a roll.
Lawrence Kudlow is a former Reagan economic advisor, a syndicated columnist, and the host of CNBC's Kudlow & Company. Visit his blog, Kudlow's Money Politics.
www.ruffcommunications.com
Wednesday, November 7, 2007
Huckabee Can Win in Iowa November 07, 2007
November 07, 2007
Huckabee Can Win in Iowa
By Dick Morris
Mike Huckabee is on a roll. Nationally, I just won my bet with Bill O’Reilly when he broke 10 percent in the latest CNN poll. And in Iowa, he is now running second. Mitt Romney is in the lead at 27 percent, according to the latest American Research survey, with Huckabee nipping at his heels at 19 percent. Rudy Giuliani is in third at 16. John McCain still has a residue of 14 percent support left, and Fred Thompson, fading fast, is down to 8 percent.
So Huckabee is within striking distance. When Perrier had to cope with the scandal about the alleged adulteration of its product, it was evident that all the beverage had going for it was its purity. It had no taste. Compromise its purity and it was sunk. Romney is in much the same situation. His candidacy is based on his being an alternative to Giuliani, conservative on social issues. But if his purity is compromised, he could be in trouble.
But Romney was once pro-life. Then he ran in Massachusetts and became pro-choice. Then he decided to run in the Republican primary for president and he became pro-life again. His flip-flop-flip may get him in big trouble in Iowa.
Rudy is, of course, pro-choice. McCain, rightly or wrongly, was criticized for hurting the social conservative movement by limiting its ability to spend money on its pet causes in the McCain-Feingold legislation. And Fred Thompson lobbied for a pro-choice abortion-rights group in the early 1990s and has been squishy on the issue ever since.
That leaves Mike Huckabee as the only pure pro-life candidate, a social conservative who has never moved to the left.
Huckabee could be vulnerable on his tax record in Arkansas, but his support for the Fair Tax likely wipes away that issue.
But Huckabee has no money. Yet, despite a total absence of advertising, he has risen steadily in Iowa from single digits to double digits to second place. Indeed, his lack of funding may be creating a reverse chic, attracting voters who are turned off by the massive hard sell of the other campaigns.
So what happens if Huckabee keeps rising and wins in Iowa? It likely sets up a three-way contest in New Hampshire, with Huckabee, Romney and Giuliani facing off against one another. Romney has the money. Rudy has the stardom. And Huckabee would have the momentum.
This all may be a pipe dream, but in a caucus state, where turnout is low and enthusiasm is at a premium, Huckabee’s demonstrated ability to generate passion among his followers would stand him in good stead.
Remember what happened in Ames, Iowa, where Romney won the straw poll based largely on his ability to write $35 checks to enroll his voters in the paid admission-only event. Huckabee finished a strong second with 18 percent of the vote even though his voters had to pay their own way. Huckabee said, “I can’t afford to buy you. I can’t even afford to rent you.”
And at the Values Convention, Romney once again papered the house with paid-for absentee voters who enrolled for $1 each and voted for Mitt. Huckabee, with no money, addressed the gathering and stirred such passion that he swept the votes of most who were there and finished second, again.
Right now Iowa looks like a Romney rout. But Huckabee could surprise everybody before the votes are counted. Morris, a former political adviser to Sen. Trent Lott (R-Miss.) and President Bill Clinton, is the author of “Outrage.” To get all of Dick Morris’s and Eileen McGann’s columns for free by email, go to http://www.dickmorris.com/.
www.ruffcommunications.com
Huckabee Can Win in Iowa
By Dick Morris
Mike Huckabee is on a roll. Nationally, I just won my bet with Bill O’Reilly when he broke 10 percent in the latest CNN poll. And in Iowa, he is now running second. Mitt Romney is in the lead at 27 percent, according to the latest American Research survey, with Huckabee nipping at his heels at 19 percent. Rudy Giuliani is in third at 16. John McCain still has a residue of 14 percent support left, and Fred Thompson, fading fast, is down to 8 percent.
So Huckabee is within striking distance. When Perrier had to cope with the scandal about the alleged adulteration of its product, it was evident that all the beverage had going for it was its purity. It had no taste. Compromise its purity and it was sunk. Romney is in much the same situation. His candidacy is based on his being an alternative to Giuliani, conservative on social issues. But if his purity is compromised, he could be in trouble.
But Romney was once pro-life. Then he ran in Massachusetts and became pro-choice. Then he decided to run in the Republican primary for president and he became pro-life again. His flip-flop-flip may get him in big trouble in Iowa.
Rudy is, of course, pro-choice. McCain, rightly or wrongly, was criticized for hurting the social conservative movement by limiting its ability to spend money on its pet causes in the McCain-Feingold legislation. And Fred Thompson lobbied for a pro-choice abortion-rights group in the early 1990s and has been squishy on the issue ever since.
That leaves Mike Huckabee as the only pure pro-life candidate, a social conservative who has never moved to the left.
Huckabee could be vulnerable on his tax record in Arkansas, but his support for the Fair Tax likely wipes away that issue.
But Huckabee has no money. Yet, despite a total absence of advertising, he has risen steadily in Iowa from single digits to double digits to second place. Indeed, his lack of funding may be creating a reverse chic, attracting voters who are turned off by the massive hard sell of the other campaigns.
So what happens if Huckabee keeps rising and wins in Iowa? It likely sets up a three-way contest in New Hampshire, with Huckabee, Romney and Giuliani facing off against one another. Romney has the money. Rudy has the stardom. And Huckabee would have the momentum.
This all may be a pipe dream, but in a caucus state, where turnout is low and enthusiasm is at a premium, Huckabee’s demonstrated ability to generate passion among his followers would stand him in good stead.
Remember what happened in Ames, Iowa, where Romney won the straw poll based largely on his ability to write $35 checks to enroll his voters in the paid admission-only event. Huckabee finished a strong second with 18 percent of the vote even though his voters had to pay their own way. Huckabee said, “I can’t afford to buy you. I can’t even afford to rent you.”
And at the Values Convention, Romney once again papered the house with paid-for absentee voters who enrolled for $1 each and voted for Mitt. Huckabee, with no money, addressed the gathering and stirred such passion that he swept the votes of most who were there and finished second, again.
Right now Iowa looks like a Romney rout. But Huckabee could surprise everybody before the votes are counted. Morris, a former political adviser to Sen. Trent Lott (R-Miss.) and President Bill Clinton, is the author of “Outrage.” To get all of Dick Morris’s and Eileen McGann’s columns for free by email, go to http://www.dickmorris.com/.
www.ruffcommunications.com
Wednesday, October 31, 2007
Yepsen: Positive, Reagan-like spirit spurs Huckabee's rise October 30, 2007
Yepsen: Positive, Reagan-like spirit spurs Huckabee's rise
David Yepsen
October 30, 2007
DesMoines Regigister
Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee's been the hot candidate in the Republican race since he finished second in the Iowa GOP's straw poll back in August.Oh, there was a little time out for some chatter about Fred Thompson, but as he has fallen flat, the talk about Huckabee has resumed.In recent days, that talk has escalated to a new level of buzz: Huckabee's doing so well in Iowa, he just might be able to win the Iowa Republican caucuses.Wow. Conventional wisdom dictates former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney's going to win Iowa. Ever since that straw poll, the buzzmeisters have slotted Huckabee to take second or third. To suggest he's going to win Iowa is taking it to a new level.It makes Huckabee people wince. Romney's had a juggernaut in Iowa for months. He's spent millions, runs lots of TV commercials, has made a couple of hundred appearances in the state and has staff all over it, including those in a sprawling suburban office park.Huckabee's low-budget campaign is, well, the difference between Beacon Hill and a trailer park. He's got only eight full-time staffers and runs his operation out of a low-rent storefront in downtown Des Moines. If homeless people went to caucuses, they'd have great access to Huckabee's campaign.Like Huckabee, Romney is fond of telling people he ran and won in a Democratic state. It's also true Romney ran as a liberal on social issues such as gay rights and abortion. Had he taken the positions on those issues that he proclaims now, he never would have been elected in Massachusetts.Huckabee, on the other hand, has been consistent, and GOP stalwarts are noticing that difference between the two men. Huckabee's rallied enough social conservatives to force Sam Brownback out of the race.While first place is a bit of a stretch, Huckabee's in a good position to win second. His fundraising is improving, and he's going to add staff.After Thompson's late start, he's lighting no fires in Iowa. His speech at the big Reagan Dinner Saturday night was a boilerplate thing he could have given anywhere. Romney didn't show. Huckabee got the only standing ovation.Huckabee's success has attracted attacks from conservative groups and news organizations who criticize him for implementing a tax increase the voters also supported. Huckabee said in an interview that some of these attacks are coming from "elitist" conservatives and "ideologues."He said "you always ought to be governing by your basic principles, but you also have to understand that government has to work." He says the attacks are evidence of his success."I'm a hunter," he notes. "You never point the gun at a dead carcass."But let's not get ahead of ourselves. As we chart Huckabee's success in the 2008 contest, it is most useful now to concentrate on his message. It is a positive, inclusive, good-humored one. As Republicans seek to rebuild from their defeat of 2006 and try to stave off a similar loss in 2008, they might study the Book of Huckabee."I'm a conservative, but I'm not mean about it," he tells audiences. He shows up at events with minority groups. His pro-life message also encompasses health care for poor women and a concern for children. His talk about education reform includes developing creative skills through art and music.He had fun playing the bass guitar in his band at the Surf Ballroom in Clear Lake - an event that attracted more than 600 people on Friday. A former Baptist pastor, Huckabee peppers his speeches with Scripture and rock-music lyrics.Unlike some Republican presidential candidates, who grew up in well-to-do families, Huckabee tells audiences his mother grew up in a house with dirt floors, and on his father's side, he is the first male to graduate from high school. That seems to give him a populist bent - and an understanding for poor people - that isn't seen in the Ivy League conservatives.At a time when GOP candidates are falling all over themselves to rekindle the spirit of Ronald Reagan in their party, Huckabee's coming as close as anyone.
DAVID YEPSEN can be reached at dyepsen@dmreg.com
www.ruffcommunications.com
David Yepsen
October 30, 2007
DesMoines Regigister
Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee's been the hot candidate in the Republican race since he finished second in the Iowa GOP's straw poll back in August.Oh, there was a little time out for some chatter about Fred Thompson, but as he has fallen flat, the talk about Huckabee has resumed.In recent days, that talk has escalated to a new level of buzz: Huckabee's doing so well in Iowa, he just might be able to win the Iowa Republican caucuses.Wow. Conventional wisdom dictates former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney's going to win Iowa. Ever since that straw poll, the buzzmeisters have slotted Huckabee to take second or third. To suggest he's going to win Iowa is taking it to a new level.It makes Huckabee people wince. Romney's had a juggernaut in Iowa for months. He's spent millions, runs lots of TV commercials, has made a couple of hundred appearances in the state and has staff all over it, including those in a sprawling suburban office park.Huckabee's low-budget campaign is, well, the difference between Beacon Hill and a trailer park. He's got only eight full-time staffers and runs his operation out of a low-rent storefront in downtown Des Moines. If homeless people went to caucuses, they'd have great access to Huckabee's campaign.Like Huckabee, Romney is fond of telling people he ran and won in a Democratic state. It's also true Romney ran as a liberal on social issues such as gay rights and abortion. Had he taken the positions on those issues that he proclaims now, he never would have been elected in Massachusetts.Huckabee, on the other hand, has been consistent, and GOP stalwarts are noticing that difference between the two men. Huckabee's rallied enough social conservatives to force Sam Brownback out of the race.While first place is a bit of a stretch, Huckabee's in a good position to win second. His fundraising is improving, and he's going to add staff.After Thompson's late start, he's lighting no fires in Iowa. His speech at the big Reagan Dinner Saturday night was a boilerplate thing he could have given anywhere. Romney didn't show. Huckabee got the only standing ovation.Huckabee's success has attracted attacks from conservative groups and news organizations who criticize him for implementing a tax increase the voters also supported. Huckabee said in an interview that some of these attacks are coming from "elitist" conservatives and "ideologues."He said "you always ought to be governing by your basic principles, but you also have to understand that government has to work." He says the attacks are evidence of his success."I'm a hunter," he notes. "You never point the gun at a dead carcass."But let's not get ahead of ourselves. As we chart Huckabee's success in the 2008 contest, it is most useful now to concentrate on his message. It is a positive, inclusive, good-humored one. As Republicans seek to rebuild from their defeat of 2006 and try to stave off a similar loss in 2008, they might study the Book of Huckabee."I'm a conservative, but I'm not mean about it," he tells audiences. He shows up at events with minority groups. His pro-life message also encompasses health care for poor women and a concern for children. His talk about education reform includes developing creative skills through art and music.He had fun playing the bass guitar in his band at the Surf Ballroom in Clear Lake - an event that attracted more than 600 people on Friday. A former Baptist pastor, Huckabee peppers his speeches with Scripture and rock-music lyrics.Unlike some Republican presidential candidates, who grew up in well-to-do families, Huckabee tells audiences his mother grew up in a house with dirt floors, and on his father's side, he is the first male to graduate from high school. That seems to give him a populist bent - and an understanding for poor people - that isn't seen in the Ivy League conservatives.At a time when GOP candidates are falling all over themselves to rekindle the spirit of Ronald Reagan in their party, Huckabee's coming as close as anyone.
DAVID YEPSEN can be reached at dyepsen@dmreg.com
www.ruffcommunications.com
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